Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Want Weaver?

Not much happening in Angels Country right now except some ridiculous trade proposals from the Red Sox and rumors that Jeff Weaver will come to town to warm up a seat in the Halos' bullpen for his brother.
When I first heard about the Weaver rumor, I was excited and thought that this would be a very good signing. It would push Carrasco back to pen where he probably belongs (although I have the feeling that he might surprise us) and give us very solid starters from 1-5.
But Weaver has the reputation of a guy who just can't get his act together, so I checked some numbers to see what his problem was.
Some of stats are pretty good. He strikes batters out at a decent clip, doesn't walk many, his 3.65 K/B rating was 7th in the NL last year and oppents just bat .256 against him. But Jeff's problem was, that when they hit him, they hit him hard. 35 HR allowed (T-2nd behind Milton), .435 slugging against. That's right in the neighbourhood of guys like Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Tom Ohka. Not the company you want to keep as a pitcher, at least not statistically.
Weaver's problems obviously are lefthanders, who managed to hit .297/.356/.511 and 22 HR against him in 2005 compared to .208/.241/.345 and 13 HR from righties. Maybe he should become a ROOGY in the pen? At least this would make the decision when to pull him easy for Scioscia. Just wait for the next lefty masher.
On the plus side, he pitched much better after the break going 7-3 with a 3.97 ERA after 7-8 with a 4.44 ERA in the first half. While his slugging against stayed about the same, he increased his Ks a little while also lowering the walks. But that's not necessarily a sign that he starts getting a grip on himself as he showed the same improvement in the second half of 2oo4 (while he totally collapsed in the second half of 2003).
He actually benefitted from playing in Dodgers Stadium and from his defense, as his stats are better at home and his defense independent ERA is a little higher than is actual ERA (4.55 to 4.22). Also, his groundball to flyball ration last year was close to 1, which explains the high number of homeruns.
All in all, in my opinion, he's not a really good fit for Angels Stadium and $9 million / year are way too much for him, so Mr. Stoneman might be better off saving the money to possibly take some contract in a deal later (at the deadline, maybe).
Sorry Jeff, but I'd rather wait for your brother.

49 Comments:

At 11:37 PM, Anonymous Joe Florkowski said...

Bjoern,

The Angels did get Jeff Weaver yesterday. They still need a bat but at least the rotation seems pretty deep now - with a quality bullpen behind it. Too bad some of the young arms aren't going to get a chance to start this year.

 
At 5:36 PM, Blogger Bjoern said...

Joe,
I got the news, but right now I don't have the time to make a post as soon as I'd like to. :(
I like the signing most because it strengthens the pen. He's still too expensive, but who isn't today?
And for the bat, I don't see the Angels acquire anyone before June, if at all. Maybe if we're five games behind the A's, but not if we are leading the division during the summer.

 
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