Sunday, June 26, 2005

State of the Angels - Part II

Shortly before the season, I had another blog for a short period. In one of my first articles, I took a look at the predictions for Angels players from the Baseball Think Factory. I stole this idea from Aaron Gleeman, who had stolen it from someone else. Now, with the first half of the season nearing its end, let's take a look at how the Angels fared so far compared to the expectations before the season. I'll did the infield a few days ago and will check the Halos' outfield.


LF - Garret Anderson (.309, .331, .457 in 2005)
Expected: .299, .325, .488
GA does what he is expected to do. Average around 300, timely hitting (.333 with RISP, 50 RBI), few walks (10). But I'd like to see more power from GA. 8 HR, 15 doubles and 1 triple are not enough. BTF would agree on this one.

CF - Steve Finley (.225, .287, .408)
Expected: .251, .317, .420
You don't have to look at the prediction to realize that Steve Finley had a terrible season, although he has more extra base hits that Garret Anderson (8 HR, 14 2B, 3 3B). He was doing better lately, hitting .279, .333, .465 over the last 30 days. But now he was put on the DL with a sore right shoulder he suffered, oh, when? On April 6th. Are you kidding me? If he was hurt and playing badly, why didn't he take some time off earlier? At least, this explains his refusal to dive for balls, but that's no excuse. Not going on the DL earlier has hurt the team.
I'm not sure if there is hope Finley will bounce back and be a better player once he returns, he's 40 years old after all.

RF - Vladimir Guerrero (.332, .385, .559)
Expected: .333, .405, .568
He has walked a little less than expected, but otherwise, he is again having an MVP season (AL: 4th in Runs Created Per Game, 6h in Gross Production Average, 7th in VORP, more about these stats at HBT or BP). He also has stolen six bases and hasn't committed an error so far. What is there not to like?

C - Molina Brothers (B: .292, .338, .451 - J: .270, .350, .393)
Expected: B: .272, .306, .396 - J: .265, .298, .338
(First, I know that catcher isn't an outfield position. I just forgot to include it the last time)
The Molina brothers are hitting better than expected. Bengie is hitting so well that he might play some DH while his brothers catches. But the former gold-glover seems to have lost some pop on his throws to 2nd though, as 16 of 20 base stealers have reached on him. He also has 5 passed balls. Jose on the other hand is having a gold glove season. He gunned down 56,5% of the runners trying to steal a base (That's 1st in the AL for catchers with more than 25 games caught) with no PB. Also, pitchers caught by Jose have a 3.16 ERA, which is 2nd in the AL behind Mike Redman (MIN), who has nine starts less than Jose.

DH - Jeff DaVanon (.234, .331, .273), Juan Rivera (.252, .284, .432)
Expected: .304, .357, .466 and .280, .367, .436
It's save to say that the Angels aren't getting the expected production from of their "full time" DHs. At least, Mike Scioscia has pinch hitters. If he needs a baserunner, he uses DaVanon (18 BB to 5), if he needs an extra base hit, he goes with Rivera (5 HR, 2 2B to 2 2B). If not one of them improves significantly, Tim Salmon might have a shot grabbing the DH when he returns in September.


At 10:36 PM, Blogger Rob said...

Salmon's history of slow starts makes it unlikely he'd get significant at-bats in September even if he were ready to go September 1. He might get a game or three at home as an Auld Lang Syne tour, but he'd have to go on a tear with power to justify it.

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