Monday, April 04, 2005

Picking on Gammons (Part 1)

The experts have made their picks. Now it's the amateur's turn. To set my goals high, I line up against the best of them, against baseball reporter legend Peter Gammons. Also, I'm make a pick for my head and for my heart each to increase my chances. :)

AL MVP - Peter Gammons: David Ortiz
I like David Ortiz, I like him very much. He's a great hitter and as far as I know, a great guy. But I don't think he'll be the next MVP. Ortiz is a DH and as long as he doesn't hit 50+ HR or .350, the writers won't give him the award. Also, he plays with Manny Ramirez, so he has to share some attention.
My pick is Vladimir Guerrero (head & heart). This is something I don't understand. Last year, after he moved to the AL, everybody picked Guerrero as MVP. This year, after he won it, only Rob Neyer and Eric Karabell pick him. Strange. As I wrote earlier, 2004 was just an average year for him. Now, with more protection around him, he should be even better.

NL MVP - Peter Gammons: Nomar Garciaparra
I'm not so sure about that one, I'm an AL guy. Garciaparra might win it, if the Cubs win their division. Bonds is obvious candidate, but I think his run will end. My heart's pick is Troy Glaus. If he'll stay healthy, clubs 40+ HR and the Diamondbacks surprise, he has a chance (Gammons seems to agree there). My head says Albert Pujols. He obviously is good enough and after he was stuck behind Bond for two years, he'll make it this year.

AL Cy Young - Peter Gammons: Randy Johnson
If Randy Johnson stays healthy, he'll win the Cy Young. Point. I just don't think he will stay healthy with his 41-year-old-knee. Rich Harden is good, but I don't think he'll get enough wins. Same for Jeremy Bonderman. Gammons also gives Bartolo Colon a chance, which makes me look less stupid. But I take another Angel, Kelvim Escobar (heart). He was good last year and he will be better this year. Also, the Halos will score enough runs for him to win 22 games (I'm kidding here). Logically thinking, it must be Randy Johnson or Johan Santana. Since I believe Johnson will get hurt, it's Santana.

NL Cy Young - Peter Gammons: Pedro Martinez
I agree. I'm currently watching Pedro striking out the Reds. When I saw the score, I thought I should change my pick, but Pedro "only" gave up a 3-run-homer. Right now, Floyd hit a 2-run-dinger, so Pedro will get his first W today. Everybody talked so much about how much changing leagues and Shea stadium will help Pedro Martinez and I think all this is true. Only concern: the Mets' pen.

Rookie Of The Year
I skip this one, sorry. I really don't know enough about prospects to make a carefully considered pick, I'd just repeat someone else's choice. I do hope McPherson will win the AL award, cause this means the Angels probably had a good year.

World Series - Peter Gammons: Twins over Cubs
Everybody loves the Twins this year. Jayson Stark, Buster Olney and Jerry Crasnick also picked them. If it would just be to thank Aaron Gleeman for his great blog, I didn't begrudge the Twins the title (correct grammar?) But even though I'm expect them to win their division (though I'm not that sure), I don't think they'll get to the series. In the end, it all comes down to Randy Johnson. If he's healthy, the Yankees start a series with Johnson, Mussina and Pavano. But take away the Big Unit, and Mussina, Pavano and Brown/Wright doesn't sound half as intimidating. To stick with my presumption that Johnson will be hurt, my head picks the Red Sox to win it all. If the Wade Miller deals plays out, they have a strong rotation and they hit better than any other club. As you could expect, I hope the Halos will win it in 2005. As for the NL finalist, I'm not sure which team to pick. I like the Marlins, but I'm not sure if they can win their division. I don't think the Cardinals have the pitching and the Cubs don't have the offense or the medical stuff. Giants have a chance if Bonds is dominant as last year. Oh man, the NL really is open for grap. My heart takes the Marlins, they have the pitching and they have a nive combination of power and speed in their lineup, they just need to stay healthy. My head says the Cardinals should be good enough to get back to the Series, their middle of the order is scary with Walker, Pujols, Edmons and Rolen smashing and their pitching is solid, their defense also good.

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