Triple B - Bjoern's Baseball Blog

Moving on

2006-03-10T18:21:00.001+01:00

The Pearly Gates have done it, League of Angels has done it and the Halo Herald did it, too. Now I'll do the same. :)

As I hinted in my last post, this blog will move to a different location. And it will also get a ~~way cooler~~ less stupid name in the process.

My analysis of the Jeff Weaver signing got me an invitation to join the At Homeplate community. So for the future, my blog's URL will be http://athomeplate.com/angels (at least until they decide I don't satisfy their quality standards. :) )

My first post is an analysis of the Angels' lineup in 2006 and there will be a preview of the Angels season shortly.

It would be great if those of you who have a link to my blog on their site could update it. Thanks!!!

So, see you at homeplate!

Bjoern

Favorite Spring Training Quote

2006-02-27T14:12:00.000+01:00

Not from an Angel though, but from the Big Unit:

"I'm throwing everything that I throw right now"

I guess that makes sense.

Not much else to write for me at the moment, I'm still busy with my thesis. But once I've finished that, it looks like my blog will move to another location and even get a real name in the process.

Got Weaver!

2006-02-17T12:11:00.000+01:00

Now that Jeff Weaver finally is a Halo, I digged a little deeper into his stats to see how he'll do next year. This is what I found out:

Much will depend on how Weaver fares at home. During his career, he played in seven games in Angels stadium, starting six. This is his line:

G-GS---IP--H-HR--R-ER-BB-SO-W-L--ERA
7--6-44.2-39--1-10-10-12-32-4-1-2.01

Pretty good, actually. I was very surprised that he gave up only one homerun. Although the sample size is small, this might be a good omen after all.

So how about our division rivals?

Team-----G-GS---IP--H-HR--R-ER-BB-SO-W-L--ERA
Oakland--5--5-29---38--7-25-23-11-24-2-1-7.14
Texas----2--2-11.1-16--0-11--9--3--8-0-2-7.15
Seattle--3--2-15.2-22--2-11-11--0-13-1-1-6.32
---------------------------------------------
Total---10--9-56---76--9-47-43-14-45-3-4-6.91

Not really that encouraging. It's strange that he allowed that many homeruns in Oakland, but none in Texas, but all this is probably due to small sample size as well.

The one thing everybody agrees on is that Weaver can eat innings. Well, maybe he ate a little to much of them. From 2003 to 2005, his OPS against when throwing 106-120 pitches rose to .948. Also, his OPS against in inning 7-9 is .871, while it is .733 from inning 1-3 and .755 from 4-6.
Other stats that indicate that Jeff shouldn't be trusted in the clutch (all stats 2003-2005):
.971 OPS against with bases loaded
1.242 OPS against with first and third
1.091 OPS against in situations close and late

It has been said that Jeff sometimes has problems controlling his nerves and these stats certainly support that statement. But some of his other stats are really good (see my last post) and now he has a great bullpen behind him. So if Scioscia pulls him early enough, i.e. after 100 pitches, in close situation and with a lefty at bat, and lets the pen finish the game, Jeff Weaver might actually have a chance to hold his ERA under 4. I'd rather see him do that and pitch 30 innings less than have 220 IP with an 4.50+ ERA at the end of the season.

Want Weaver?

2006-02-08T13:17:00.000+01:00

Not much happening in Angels Country right now except some ridiculous trade proposals from the Red Sox and rumors that Jeff Weaver will come to town to warm up a seat in the Halos' bullpen for his brother.
When I first heard about the Weaver rumor, I was excited and thought that this would be a very good signing. It would push Carrasco back to pen where he probably belongs (although I have the feeling that he might surprise us) and give us very solid starters from 1-5.
But Weaver has the reputation of a guy who just can't get his act together, so I checked some numbers to see what his problem was.
Some of stats are pretty good. He strikes batters out at a decent clip, doesn't walk many, his 3.65 K/B rating was 7th in the NL last year and oppents just bat .256 against him. But Jeff's problem was, that when they hit him, they hit him hard. 35 HR allowed (T-2nd behind Milton), .435 slugging against. That's right in the neighbourhood of guys like Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Tom Ohka. Not the company you want to keep as a pitcher, at least not statistically.
Weaver's problems obviously are lefthanders, who managed to hit .297/.356/.511 and 22 HR against him in 2005 compared to .208/.241/.345 and 13 HR from righties. Maybe he should become a ROOGY in the pen? At least this would make the decision when to pull him easy for Scioscia. Just wait for the next lefty masher.
On the plus side, he pitched much better after the break going 7-3 with a 3.97 ERA after 7-8 with a 4.44 ERA in the first half. While his slugging against stayed about the same, he increased his Ks a little while also lowering the walks. But that's not necessarily a sign that he starts getting a grip on himself as he showed the same improvement in the second half of 2oo4 (while he totally collapsed in the second half of 2003).
He actually benefitted from playing in Dodgers Stadium and from his defense, as his stats are better at home and his defense independent ERA is a little higher than is actual ERA (4.55 to 4.22). Also, his groundball to flyball ration last year was close to 1, which explains the high number of homeruns.
All in all, in my opinion, he's not a really good fit for Angels Stadium and $9 million / year are way too much for him, so Mr. Stoneman might be better off saving the money to possibly take some contract in a deal later (at the deadline, maybe).
Sorry Jeff, but I'd rather wait for your brother.

That hurts!

2006-01-26T02:33:00.000+01:00

So the A's signed Frank "Big Hurt" Thomas for just $500.000. This figure might go up to $2.6 million, but that's still pretty cheap for a guy who will most likely put up an OPS of .900+ if he stays healthy. If you look up "low risk, high reward" in wikipedia, I'm sure this deal is already cited there.
I keep asking myself: why couldn't the Angels make this deal? They have the money, they have a DH spot just as comfortable as that one in Oakland and they even have better weather, which is always nice for an oldtimer like Thomas. Why didn't anybody in the organisation seriously think of it when the team so clearly lacks power?
Well, there's always old mafioso Mike Piazza, some might say. While he's probably as cheap as Thomas at this point and a little more likely to stay healthy, the last two years he put up an OPS around .800. While this is still above average for the Angels, it is much less than what Thomas might and, I believe, Juan Rivera or McPherson should provide. So signing Piazza doesn't make much sense for the Angels, but Thomas might have. But, he's with Oakland now and it doesn't take a genius like Billy Beane to know this was a good move for them and it might hurt the Angels in the end, when (better: if) Oakland edges away with the division.

Steve Finley, good hitter

2006-01-21T16:30:00.000+01:00

I know, I know, he's gone (thank god!), but the Giants apparently weren't watching last year, or they strongly believe in ~~second~~ third springs. This quote comes from an article from MLB.com about the Giants thinking about batting Bonds 2nd in the lineup:

The reasoning now is that Bonds will likely be taken out of games in the late innings -- to rest his legs and help keep him healthy -- and Alou would prefer inserting a good hitter, the caliber of Steve Finley, as a replacement rather than an on-the-bench leftover.

Well, if I had just one word to describe the 2005 Steve Finley, "on-the-bench-leftover" would be it. But more and more I get the feeling, that next year, he will have a solid season, Erstad will be injured most of the time and we'll be stuck with El Fonzi on the bench.

Baseball Scrabble

2006-01-14T19:36:00.000+01:00

Over at Halos Heaven I found a link to this great site where they tell you how many points baseball player's last names are worth in Scrabble.
Who's name is worth the most? My guesses were *Pierzynski (28)* and *Mientkiewicz (32)*, but *Vazquez* scored *37* Points.
Last name worth the fewest points? There are four different names. One of them is relativly easy, but can you name all four? It's *Lee*, *Orr*, *Loe* and *Seo*.
And yes, I am bored.

What's WHIP?

2006-01-12T00:26:00.000+01:00

Yesterday, Bruce Sutter was elected into the Hall of Fame. His stats are pretty good, but not really that great, he only played in 12 seasons, but considering he invented or popularized the splitfinger-fastball, I'm okay with this decision. The Hall shouldn't be all about stats. I do not think he deserved it more than some other players on the Ballot though, but since he had only three years of eligibility, I understand why he was voted in now.
Tom Verducci from Sports Illustrated also thinks that someone else, Goose Gossage, should have been voted in instead of Sutter. And he gets a little carried away with his argumentation:

Remember, Gossage pitched most of his career in the AL, with the DH, and Sutter never faced a DH.

Well, this point certainly applies to starting pitchers, but Closers usually don't face pitchers, but pinch hitters. Although the average DH might be a little bit better than the average pinch hitter, I don't think the difference is that big that this is a real argument against Sutter.
But it gets better:

And yet look who was the tougher pitcher to hit, as defined by opponents' batting average and walks plus hits per inning pitched (see chart, right).

This sound like a solid argument, at least as long as you don't look at the actual chart:

Pitcher BAA WHIP
Gossage .228 1.232
Sutter .230 1.140

If even Members of the BBWAA like Verducci don't know that a smaller WHIP is actually BETTER, no voting result is going to surprises me anymore.

Erstad back in Centerfield

2006-01-11T11:06:00.000+01:00

The Angels announced that Daren Erstad will move back to center, leaving first base in the hands of Casey Kotchman. Chone Figgins will play third, which means that Dallas McPherson will be the DH most of the time (except against lefties, I guess).
While I, like most Angels fans probably, am happy that I don't have to endure any more Steve Finley in Centerfield and that Kotchman gets his shot at first, Erstad playing center again reminds me of why he was moved in the first place: His proneness to injury. I somehow can't image Erstad starting more than 100 games in center next year. But plans for the worst (?) case are already made:

"... if Erstad got hurt and Figgy had to play center, Dallas could play third."

I bet Scioscia had to bite his lip not to say "when" instead of "if" when he gave that interview. However, when the inevitable happens, Dallas' back is hopefully completely healed and he can play the rest of the season in the field. That will free up the DH spot for Juan Rivera (vs RHP) and Robb Quinlan (vs LHP) or even Tim Salmon. As much as I like Daren and his gritty play and all his intangibles and his leadership and his running over catchers, at least offensively, this will probably make the Angels better.

Still, opening day and even spring training are still far, far away and there is a lot of time to spin a deal or sign a free agent. It doesn't have to be Manny or Tejada (although that would be really, really nice). Why not take a shot with a one-year contract on Frank Thomas or Mike Piazza. At least think about it. If the A's do it, so should the Angels.

It's good that these times are over

2006-01-08T11:06:00.000+01:00

I'm still not sure he was the problem down there. It's more like a day-care center than a major league clubhouse. Somebody said to me, "You can't trade 25 guys." I said, "Why not?"

In shifting the blame for a sub .400 last place 1999 from fired Manager Terry Collins to the players.
Tony Tavares

Wrong Strategy?

2006-01-05T19:22:00.000+01:00

Didn't we all wonder why the Angels' offense sputtered so much last year? It certainly wasn't the batting average of .270, 7th best in the majors. It rather was the OBP of .325 (19th) and the SLG of .409 (18th). As far as I know, the Angels offense strategy is to make contact and put the ball in play. This obviously is the reason for the OBP problem, but did you know it might also be responsible for the low slugging percentage? In 2005 Angels batters only struck out 848 times (just behind Oakland for 29th or 2nd place, however you see it) and as the guys from the Hardball Times found out, there is a positive correlation between strikeouts and the value of your outfield flies, i.e. the flyballs are more likely to leave the park. Ok, saying the Angels should strike out more probably oversimplifies things, but isn't it possible that some players don't reach their power potential because they focus too much on putting the ball in play?

Do you remember?

2006-01-05T18:24:00.000+01:00

It's easy to stay in the majors for seven and a half years when you hit .300. But when you hit .216, like me, it's really an accomplishment.

Joseph Michael Lahoud (played in the outfield and DH for the Angels from 74-76 and had his career year with them, hitting .271, .367, .458 in 1974. He wound up playing ten years in the major after all, but never more than 38 games a season after he left the Angels. His career average is .223)

Stepping to the plate, hitting somewhere, the Third Baseman ...

2006-01-04T17:18:00.000+01:00

... Edgardo Alfonzo???
Are you kidding me? ESPN reveals the current AL Rosters and our starting Third Baseman is Alfonso. Absolutely ridiculous!
D-Mac had an .744 OPS last year, EA just .672. Although he is better (that is: less bad) than D-Mac against southpaws (.646 to .474), the Angels won't platoon him because they have Quinlan sitting on the bench (.860 OPS vs lefties).
Let's hope we don't actually have to see a game in which that guy starts.

---

I've always been little, even back when I was little.

Commenting on his height of 5 feet, 6-1/2 inches
David Eckstein

Happy New Year!

2006-01-04T01:02:00.000+01:00

Happy New Year, Halosphere! Farewell Sean and all the best! Thanks again for linking to me! :)

So the Angels finally traded away Finley and what did they get? A guy who, if we are lucky, won't play a game at all next year.
Finley was bad last year, really, really bad, but he was good once and he was a centerfielder. I really think we should have gotten a better deal. Not much better, but a little better. Save some money, get a long shot prospect, use him as part of another deal, something like that.
And why are the Angels hardly ever mentioned in Ramirez/Tejada rumors?

By the way, I'm playing a draft-dynasty-game in MVP Baseball with the Angels and after winning the division the first year and losing the ALDS to Toronto in three games, I'm now in the World Series against the Giants in my second year. The Angels have just managed to climb back from a 0-2 hole to make it 2-2. One game left in Anaheim.

---

Dodgers and Angels highlights at 11. Please watch anyway.

Bill Weir, Cutting a promo during the 1999 season when both teams were having mediocre sub-.500 seasons.

Damon signs with Yankees

2005-12-21T11:38:00.000+01:00

No, we certainly didn't expect Damon to sign with the Angels, but now that he's with the Yankees, the Red Sox need a centerfielder and a shortstop. How about Steve Finley/Darin Erstad and Orlando Cabrera? Damon's signing probably means the Manny-Trade-Talks are heating up again.
The Red Sox certainly want a bat to compensate at least a little bit for the loss of Manny's production, so a third team (or Garret Anderson?) must be involved/included. Still, I can't see the Red Sox fill their needs without trading Manny, they have nobody in the minors who could play short or center in the bigs.

---

I said, "I'd be pissed too, if a guy was throwing at my head like that." He thought that was pretty funny. It kind of lightened the mood.

Greeting Oakland's visibly upset Frank Menechino at first base after he'd been hit in the foot by Angels pitcher Scott Schoenweis for the second time in the game.
Scott Spiezio

Nothing ever happens, nothing happens at all

2005-12-18T13:17:00.000+01:00

Booo-ring!

You can't really say the Angels are having a busy off-season.

Yesterday however, while searching for a good signature for my new forum, I found out that this great quote

Baseball Is Life, Life Is Baseball!

belongs to Angels Great Tim Salmon. He is such a profound philosopher, isn't he?

So, instead of shutting the blog down until Mr Stoneman gets a deal done worth talking about, I'm going to post my favorite Angels quotes here from time to time.

Bjoern

Three's A Charm

2005-12-10T18:58:00.000+01:00

Someone on a German (!) us-sports-forum suggested that the news about a disgruntled Tejada in Baltimore might not result in a Tejada for Manny trade but rather in a three team deal involving the Angels, Orioles and Red Sox. I find that idea very intriguing...

Tejada -> Red Sox
Manny, $$$ -> Angels
Cabrera, Erstad, ??? -> Orioles

This looks like it needs some minor tweaking, but it might be easier to work out than a two way deal.

Horay, we have a LOOGY!

2005-12-10T13:00:00.000+01:00

The Angels traded minor league infielder Alexi Casilla (never heard of him) to the Minnesota Twins for J.C. Romero, who will get $2.2 mill. next season.
I'm not too happy with the fact that Romero felt "disrespected" by the Twins Organisation (which, as far as I can tell, seems to be a pretty good one) and clashed with his manager, because that might mean that he'll bring some unhealthy attitude to the clubhouse.
Also, he reportedly has trouble keeping inherited runners from scoring and his 2005 numbers aren't all that great: 3.47 ERA, 48 K, 39 BB, 6 HR in 57 innings.
BUT, his lefty split is a line of beauty: 2.54 ERA, .198 BAA, .308 OBA, .267 SLG, 28 K, 10 BB, 2 HR in 28.1 innings pitched.
So I guess this is a good addition after all. It addressed a major weakness (no lefty in the pen) and didn't cost us too much.
Casilla (21) started the season in AA Arkansas and hit .211, .286, .211 in 19 AB, then went to AAA Salt Lake, where he played 13 games, hitting .256, .310, .256. On May 16th, he was sent down to A Cedar Rapids, playing in 78 games, hitting .325, .392, .409 and stealing 47 bases in 59 tries. Not bad, but not great for a 21 year old playing Single-A ball. And with their depth in middle infielders, the Angels won't miss Casilla much, I expect.

Finley on his way out of town?

2005-12-07T12:39:00.000+01:00

Ken Rosenthal says:

The Angels are trying to move center fielder Steve Finley in a salary exchange. Among their possible targets: Padres outfielder Ryan Klesko and Giants third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo.

Although neither Klesko (.248, .358, .418, 18 HR) nor Alfonso (.277, .327, .345, 2 HR) are players I want the Angels to trade for, if this gets us rid of Finley, I will gladly take it . Klesko can be a descent fourth or fifth outfielder, who can get on base (75 BB, that tops everybody on the current roster) and Alfonzo can be, ah, might do, ah,... I'd rather have Klesko.

To Be Manny Or Not To Be Manny?

2005-12-03T01:38:00.000+01:00

Nothing new on the Manny front.
I suggest Finley, Kennedy, Yan and some prospect other than Wood, Morales, Santana or Mathis. Maybe Callaspo or Kendrick? Plus some Cash, of course.
OK, the Red Sox won't bite.

Bye the way, did anyone knew that OC was the best player in the majors when it came to hit a sac fly? Me neither.

No Konerko

2005-12-01T13:39:00.000+01:00

As everybody already knows, Paul Konerko really did take a hometown discount and resigned with the White Sox for a paltry $60 mill for five years. I agree with Joe Florkowski from League of Angels that it's good to see a star player show some loyality towards his old team.
So we might see some CK at 1B after all.

In totally unrelated matters:
Check out this story about a homeless senior softball player.

Bjoern

The Paul-Konerko-Domino-Effect

2005-11-30T12:00:00.000+01:00

If the Angels really offered 65$ for 5 years to Konerko, he will most certainly be a Halo next year unless he takes a hometown discount to play with the White Sox. I can't see any team matching this kind of offer.
This would kick off a big reorganization.
Erstad would move back to center, which means Figgins will have to play second. The team wouldn't need neither Kennedy, nor Kotchman, nor Finley anymore. Which team needs a second baseman, a center fielder and a first baseman? The Red Sox.
They are desperate to trade Manny (I guess) and the Mets have already spent to much money this winter to afford him. Where else could he go? Seattle? I don't think so.
So we move Kennedy ($3 mill), Finley ($6 mill), Kotchman and another mid-level prospect to the Red Sox and they give us Manny and take $5 mill/year of his contract.

Our lineup would be:

2B Figgins (S)
CF Erstad(L)
RF Vladdi (R)
DH Manny (R)
LF GA (L)
1B Konerko (R)
3B Mc Pherson (L)
SS Cabrera (R)
C Molina/Mathis (R)

Bench:
Corner Infielder: Quinlan
Middle Infielder: Izturis
4th Outfielder: Rivera

Rotation:
Colon
Lackey
Santana
Escobar
Saunders/Byrd

Bullpen:
K-Rod
Shields
Donnelly ?
Woods
Gregg ?

Boy, I can't see how such a team would not reach the World Series. And we can still trade DaVanon for another arm in the bullpen, maybe.

Gold Gloves Ridiculous & the Range Factor

2005-11-29T11:41:00.000+01:00

It's been a while since the gold glove awards have been announced and I know that most people don't really care about them, since on many occasions, the gold glove goes to a player, who is good offensively and doesn't hurt himself on the field, but it's not really a sign of defensive excellence any more (was it ever?).
But some decisions are so outrageous, that I can't just accept them quietly. I'm talking about, of course, the decisions to give the AL shortstop gold glove to Derek Jeter over Orlando Cabrera (and, to a slightly lesser degree, Mark Teixeira over Daren Erstad).
I'm not going to argue here since I'm totally biased, I just let the stats speak for themselves:

Stat        Jeter - Cabrera
Errors         15         7
Fielding%    .979      .988
Zone Rating  .830      .844
Range Factor 4.76      4.18

Obviously, you just need to look at the error totals to realize who has the better glove. In the last five years in the AL, Omar Visquel is the only other SS who had 7 or less errors and played in more than 140 games (Good old David Eckstein came close in 2004 with only 6 error in 138 games).
The only stat where Jeter bests Cabrera is Range Factor and this is one of the most stupid stats out there. It simply adds Putouts and Assists and divides them by Innings. So if a team's pitchers strike out a lot of batters or allow many flyball, the team's shortstop will have a poor Range Factor, how stupid is this???
This year, Angels pitchers pitched 1464.1 innings and faced 6084 hitters, while Yankees pitchers hurled 1430.2 innings and faced 6105 batters.
Of these 6084 (6105) hitters, 1126 (985) struck out, 443 (463) walked and 48 (84) were hit by a pitch, which means that there were 4467 (4573) balls in play. The Angels had a 1.08 groundball-to-flyball ratio, which means that there were approx. 2319 groundballs in the infield, while the Yankees had a 1.34 G/F rate and therefore 2618 groundballs to field.
Cabrera played in 141 games, while Jeter appeared in 157, so they saw approx. 2018 and 2537 groundballs fielded by their teammates or themselves, respectively.
If we forget about putout (because they are grounders fielded by another player) and just look at the assists, Cabrera fielded 229 of 2018 balls that were hit anywhere in the infield for a percentage of 11,35%, while Jeter only got a percentage of 10,32% (262 of 2537).
I know that for these percentages to be a meaningful way of comparison, one must assume that the average of grounders hit towards the shortstop is the same for each team. I don't think that's the case, since this probably depends on the handedness and type of pitchers on this team and the opposing batters, but at least it shows what a completely useless stat Range Factor is.

If you believe David Gassko's fielding system, Derik Jeter actually had the fourth worst range in the AL after Michael Young, Russ Adams and Angel Berroa.

Relocation?

2005-11-27T17:56:00.000+01:00

No, not my blog this time.
There's a story in the LA Times that Arte Moreno would think about relocating the Angels if the city of Anaheim appealed a court decision on the name change in january, setting up a "lengthy process". Since hardly anybody in the Halosphere wrote anything about that, I guess it's mostly hot air, but still... Bureaucrats are bureaucrats after all.
Sometimes I get the feeling, all this name-change-court-thing is just a public relation trick to get some media attentions in slack season. Arte and the city probably have already settled this difference some time ago and are putting up a show right now.

Redesign!

2005-11-27T07:58:00.000+01:00

Relaunch is followed by redesign. Hope you like it.
Now I have to think about something to write about...

Relaunch!

2005-11-26T16:59:00.000+01:00

After I chose total hermitage for months to prepare myself for a job interview I really, really wanted to succeed in, all I got in the end was a rejection (and three disappointed blog readers). :(

On the bright side, I can now get back to my normal life. So one of the first things I'm going to do is revive my baseball blog and some other project that lay on ice for some time now.

Here we go...

Half Game Gain

2005-08-19T13:32:00.000+02:00

It's good to see the offense bouncing back quickly with 13 runs on 15 hits and 5 BB, although they struck out 9 times. Finley does again nothing to help his cause, going 0-4 with a BB (at least) and playing awful defense (ok, I only saw that one ball in the beginning, but anybody but Finley would have caught that).
I don't have much time to write anything today, I'm visiting my parents and have to catch a train...

Blue Jays - Bogy Team

2005-08-18T10:24:00.000+02:00

The Angels lose the rubber game to the Blue Jays and it wasn't the bullpen this time.
Fortunately, the Halos got some unexpected help from the O's, who swept the A's at home and even the Devil Rays took two out of three from the Yankees to keep the Angels lead in the wild card at 3.5 games. But on the horizon, the Indians are closing in, only 5 games behind now (and the Blue Jays are within 6).
In the next series, the Angels really must take advantage of the recently pretty mediocre pitching from Boston and win 3 of the 4 games with the Red Sox, because the A's are not going to lose in Kansas City, where the Royals are working on a an all time record losing streak (How about a new manager?). They stand at 18 straight loses and the A's will gladly help them make that 22, one shy of the record.
The keys against Boston will be to avoid making mistakes on defense, because if you give this offense extra opportunities, they will make you pay, and for the pitcher to stay away from the long ball. If they can do that, I like the Angels chances against Wakefield (I can't see Vlad miss to many knucklers), Arroyo, Clement and Noname Runfaerie. There's no name that scares you particularly, not even Closer-By-Misery Curt Schilling, who is hit hard and hit often. Also, a series win against the Red Sox will be a confidence booster for a likely division series matchup.

Oops, they did it again

2005-08-17T13:42:00.000+02:00

Who would have ever thought that one day, Kevin Gregg would relieve Francisco Rodriguez in the 9th? And that it would work? Certainly not me. Gutsy decision by Scioscia, good job by Gregg, who now has 11 consecutive scoreless innings. But the Angels could not rally back after Rodriguez gave it away.
Fortunately, he wasn't the only closer who failed to do his job today as Mariano "Automatic" Rivera blew his second save in his last three opportunities and the Yankees finally lost in 11 innings against Tampa Bay.
The A's couldn't catch a break either, as the O's scored 3 unearned runs after an error (by an umpire) and the A's left the bases loaded in the 9th, losing 4-3.

No luck this time!

2005-08-16T12:13:00.000+02:00

So Oakland finally ran out of luck, losing 0-1 and 1-2 to the Twins and playing sloppily in the 7th as Zito hit a batter to load the bases, failed to field a slow tapper down the line (he fell down - and it was not ruled an error!), then walked in a run to tie the game. Finally, Crosby threw the ball into right field on a perfect double play ball. That was all the O's needed to win the game.
Meanwhile, the Angels committed another error themselves, but it was just a good old regular throwing error from the third baseman Izturis to first, nothing freaky. While it allowed one extra run to score, the Blue Jays kindly returned the favor with two errors of their own and allowed the Halos to finally win the game in the 11th.
I have said many nasty things about Orlando Cabrera, but he made some nice defensive plays early in the game and his relay throw in the seventh kept it a one run game.
Also, how about Kevin Gregg? The former white flagg has not allowed a run in his 10.1 innings in august while striking out 11 and walking only one. Wow! Looks like he finally has found his control.
While the collective Halosphere breathes more easily now that the A's are two games back again, the Angels' margin of error has actually become smaller. While they enjoyed a comfortable lead in the wild card standings for a long time (though nobody noticed it while we were in first place), this lead is now down to 3.5 games. If the Angels lost 4 games to the Yankees and 2 to the A's, they would be out of the playoffs.

Angels @ Mariner, Lackey vs. Meche

2005-08-14T22:09:00.000+02:00

No liveblogging today, just a few thoughts from time to time.

22.08: Garret Anderson is out of the lineup again. Let's hope Bengie can make the Mariners pay if they walk Vladdi intentionally four times today. Oh, and Cabrera is still hitting 2nd. :(

22.14: Finley is just an awful centerfielder. How could this be a double, even for Ichiro???

22.27: Lackey with some serious trouble early. Now the offense has to pick him up. 3-0 Mariners

22.52: Minnesota leads 1-0 in Oakland. Only 6 innings to go.

23.04: Casey Kotchman did it again! Could it be he has hit more dingers than singles? 3-1 Mariners

23.10: Second time Finley came to the plate as the tying run. First time line out, second time double play.

23.32: The A's tie the game in Oakland. Shortly after, Vladdi hits a three-run-bomb. 5-3 Angels

23.42: Apparrently I missed a homerun, because it's 6-3 already.

23.44: Bengie hit one out. And Finley ends an inning for the third time tonight.

23.45: Ichiro steals 2nd after an infield single and comes home. 6-4 Angels

23.56: The Twins have a man in scoring position with no outs in the 9th.

23.57: 2-1 Twins

00.09: Joe Nathan is my hero! Twins beat the A's 2-1

00.19: The announcer just said that Finley was in a "looong slump". He's right. It started in April.

00.32: Ichiro! singles in a run. That's it for Lackey. Pine Tar Time! 6-5 Angels

00.44: Ichiro!! goes to third on a steal and a wild pitch.

00.45: They CAN NOT stop it! Damn it! Donnelly can't throw the ball to Erstad from 10 feet away. Ichiro!!! scores. Game tied at 6-6

00.57: I really don't agree with the decision to let Figgins bunt over Kennedy. He is so hot right now and the two guys behind him are not. Also, Vlad will have to lead of the 9th. No good idea.

01.00: I bow to Erstad, he's got it done. I'm not worthy! 7-6 Angels

01.09: Do you remember how it felt to be not nervous in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning with a lead? Shields comes in and walks Sexson.

01.11: Double. 3rd and 2nd.

01.13: Figgins with a great catch, but a bad throw. Bengie managed to tag out Sexson though. At least that's what the ump said. Bless him!

01.14: God old Scott Spiezio comes to the plate. A flyout lowers his average from .044 to .043.

01.26: Francisco's pitch hits ... the umpire.

01.29: K on 9 pitches.

01.30: Ichiro? flies out.

01.33: K on 3 pitches. Angels win 7-6 and are alone in first place again.

So I guess I was liveblogging after all.

Angels @ Mariners & Twins @ A's - Liveblogging Doubleheader

2005-08-13T22:08:00.000+02:00

22.08 (CET) - Oakland: The game is delayed in Oakland because Eckersley's number is retired.

22.15 - Seattle: Runners at the corners. No outs.

22.17 - Seattle: Cabrera picked off at first. Arg!

22.18 - Seattle: Base hit by Vladdi. 1-0 Angels

22.21 - Oakland:The A's and Twins finally start to earn their paychecks today.

22.22 - Seattle: Juan Rivera drives in Vladdi with a single. 2-0 Angels

22.23 - Seattle:Izturis flies out. OC's pickoff costs us at least one run, probably two. The Angels just can't stop making mistakes.

22.29 - Oakland: No score after one inning.

22.30 - Seattle: The Mariners go quietly in the first.

22.38 - Seattle: Homerun Chone Figgins!!! 3-0 Angels

22.39 - Oakland: Still no score after two. The only hit so far came from Kendall in the first.

22.45 - Oakland: The Twins have two men on with one out.

22.45 - Seattle: Another 1-2-3 inning for Colon. He has 3 Ks.

22.48 - Oakland: The Twins cannot score.

22.51 - Seattle: The Angels fail to score in the third. Let's hope that won't become a trend.

22.54 - Seattle: The Mariners have their first hit. A single with no outs.

22.58 - Oakland: A double and a walk for the A's, but still no score as Mays retires Kotsay.

23.02 - Seattle: Colon retires the next three batters on strike, pop and ground out.

23.08 - Seattle: Izturis nearly hits another homer, but Ichiro makes the catch at the wall.

23.09 - Oakland: Erich Chavez in scoring position at 2B with two outs, Payton bats.

23.10 - Oakland: ... and grounds out.

23.12 - Seattle: Kennedy strikes out and strands Molina, who's singled, at first.

23.18 - Oakland: Runners at the corners with two outs for the Twins, Stewart bats.

23.21 - Seattle: Colon finds himself in a jam after a single and a walk with Beltre at the plate. Only one out.

23.22 - Seattle: Double play!

23.24 - Oakland: Stewart pops up.

23.30 - Oakland: Swisher ist at 2nd base with two outs after a walk, but Kendall grounds out.

23.31 - Seattle: Figgins, who has singled, scores from 1B on a single by Cabrera because Reed in center bobbles the ball and doesn't pay attention to the running Figgins. 4-0 Angels

23.32 - Seattle: A single by Erstad puts runners at the corners for Vladdi with no outs.

23.37 - Oakland: Justin Morneau hits a two runs homer in the 6th! 2-0 Twins

23.38 - Seattle: Vladdi singles home Cabrera. 5-0 Angels

23.40 - Seattle: Rivera bloops one into left, scoring Erstad. Rivera advances to second on a bad throw. 6-0 Angels

23.45 - Seattle: Is Cabrera tired or just stupid? Does he always speak like that? Could it be he annoys his team-mates? Is that why they make so many mistakes?

23.46 - Oakland: Runners at the corners again with one out for Oakland.

23.49 - Seattle: The Mariners walk Izturis to load the bases for Jose Molina. He responds by hitting a ground rule double. 8-0 Angels

23.50 - Oakland: The A's get a single from Johnson and cut the Twins' lead in half. 2-1 Twins

23.51 - Oakland: Jay Payton hits a three-run-homerun to put the A's on top 4-2. Damn you Payton! Couldn't you just keep sitting quietly on the bench in Boston?

23.57 - Seattle: Colon gets himself another easy inning. He has just allowed two hits and a walk so far while striking out 4.

00.04 - Seattle: The top of the 6th holds only two Ks and a flyout for the Angels.

00.08 - Seattle: Vladdi is in a generous mood and gives Ichiro a homerun as a present. He tries to time his leap, can't hold on to the ball and pushes it over the wall. If the score wasn't so loopsided, I'd get a little bit annoyed. 8-1 Angels

00.10 - Seattle: OC flashes the leather.

00.12 - Oakland: Seventh inning stretch in Oakland. Still 4-2 Oakland.

00.13 - Seattle: Finley pinch hits for Anderson give him some rest.

00.15 - Seattle: Seattle fans send "Get Well, Mike" wishes to Ex-Mariner Mike Cameron, who collided with Beltran on Thursday. Very nice!

00.19 - Oakland: Kotsay homers. 5-2 A's

00.20 - Seattle: Juan Rivera homers. 9-1 Angels

00.21: There can't be any doubt that Rivera MUST play regularly against righthanders. He now has an .855 OPS against righthanders this year.

00.26 - Seattle: That "Sound Of The Game" record on fox proves it. OC annoys his teammates. Have you looked into their faces? That's the same look you had a school when that strange guy you hardly knew appeared and told you about band camp. That's what you get if you sign a guy out of the Red Sox' clubhouse.

00.31 - Seattle: The Mariners get another single of Colon and another K as well, that's all. Colon is at 88 pitches.

00.33 - Oakland: The Twins have a man in scoring position again.

00.34 - Seattle: Figgins steps to the plate searching for the triple, which would give him the cycle. He flies out though.

00.36 - Oakland: The Twins bring the tying run to the plate in rightfielder Michael Ryan, who's hitting .175 for the year (.493 OPS). He strike out, of course. Pinch hitting, anyone? And why's this guy hitting 6th??? Vladdi would have better numbers swinging with the eyes closed.

00.45 - Oakland: The 9th inning begins. The bottom of the Twins order will bat (4-8, BB today).

00.48 - Oakland: Cuddyer walks.

00.49 - Oakland: Redmond singles. Error by Swisher in right field put runners on second and third. The tying run will come to the plate in Bartlett (2HR in 05).

00.52 - Oakland: K

00.53 - Oakland: Stewart at the plate (10HR in 05).

00.54 - Seattle: Bottom 9th, Yan relieves Colon.

00.56 - Seattle: 1-2-3, Angels win 9-1

00.56 - Oakland: Stewart strike out after fouling off 5 straight.

00.57 - Oakland: Pinch hitter Tiffee is up (1HR in 05 - The Twins really have some pop on their bench! By the way: There's a Tiffee in the German Sesame Street, it's a girlish pelican or something like that).

00.59 - Oakland: Tiffee strikes out manly on three pitches. A's win 5-2

01.01: I go to bed now.

The Road ahead

2005-08-13T11:01:00.000+02:00

After some claimed the Angels season was over, here we are in first place again, 3.5. game ahead in the wild card. Will it last?
Let's take a look at the remainng schedule:

.LAA...OAK...NYY...CLE...BOS
2@SEA 2-MIN 2-TEX 2-TB. 2-CWS
3-TOR 3-BAL 3@TB. 3-TEX 3@DET
4-BOS 3-KC. 3@CWS 3-BAL 4@LAA
3@BAL 3@DET 4-TOR 4@TB. 3@KC.
3@TB. 4@BAL 3-KC. 3@TOR 3-DET
3-OAK 3@LAA 4@SEA 3-DET 4-TB
3-SEA 3-NYY 3@OAK 3@MIN 3-BAL
3@BOS 3-SEA 3-TB. 3@DET 3-LAA
3@CWS 3@TEX 3-BOS 3-MIN 3@NYY
3@SEA 3@CLE 3@TB. 3-OAK 3@TOR
4-DET 4@BOS 3@TOR 3-KC. 4-OAK
3-TEX 3-MIN 4-BAL 3@CWS 3@TB
3-TB. 3-TEX 3-TOR 4@KC. 3@BAL
4@OAK 4-LAA 4@BAL 3-TB. 4-TOR
3@TEX 3@SEA 3@BOS 3-CWS 3-NYY

Home sweet home?
LAA: 23 @ home, 24 on the road
OAK: 24 @ home, 23 on the road
NYY: 22 @ home, 26 on the road
CLE: 26 @ home, 20 on the road
BOS: 26 @ home, 22 on the road

Top dogs? Gimmies?
(Games against teams over .500/ 10 games over .500 / 10 games under .500)
LAA: 20 / 17 / 14
OAK: 22 / 19 / 09
NYY: 22 / 12 / 16
CLE: 18 / 09 / 16
BOS: 26 / 19 / 10

On the bright side, the Angels' schedule is a little weaker than the Athletics'. Unfortunately, the wild card runner-ups also have relatively weak schedules, so the Angels should try hard to win the division and not lay back and wait for the wild card to fall into their laps. Even Boston, though 5 games ahead of the Yankees, is not through yet.
The Angels absolutely have to avoid making mistakes and drop games to Tampa Bay and Seattle, 10-4 is a must against them if you remember how Oakland is handling these kind of teams (they outscored KC 32-5 in a three games sweep).
Against Boston and Chicago, I would be happy if the Angels could play .500 ball, maybe 6-4 to gain confidence for the ALDS.
The Halos should also win most of the series against Toronto, Texas, Baltimore and Detroit, maybe a sweep here or there. They absolutely have to avoid something like what happened in the SkyDome a few weeks ago. 10-6 is not too much to ask.
So let's say the Angels go 25-15 over the last month of the season, that would leave them at 91-64, with 7 games against Oakland left. Even if the Angels lose these series, let's say 3-4 or even 2-5, 93 wins will most likely be enough for the postseason. So while the two remaining series against Oakland mean a lot, the Angels can take some pressure out of these games by playing well against the other teams. It doesn't have to be like last year (though I'd take it if the Angels come out on top again).

Angels @ A's series afterthoughts

2005-08-12T02:14:00.000+02:00

Now that the Angels have finished their series in Oakland, it's time to think about what we have learned:

The Angels starting pitching is right there with the best of them. Lackey, Santana and Byrd all were good to excellent.
The Angels can score of Harden and Zito.
The Angels bullpen is in a serious funk. No lead is safe. Shields, Donnelly, K-Rod, you can't trust anybody right now.
The Angels need a southpaw for the pen. The Eric-Chavez-At-Bat today proved that once again.
OC should not hit at the top of the order. He went only 2-13 with 1 BB in Oakland. Move Kennedy in the 2 spot. His .379 OBP is just wasted down there.
Vlad needs better protection. With Anderson out, Vladdi was walked intentionally three in the rubber game, a treatment that usually only Bonds receives.
The Angels need to get a grip on themselves. There were so many errors, misplays and brain lapses over the last weeks, you couldn't count them. I don't know what the team must do, I'm not a coach, but something has to be done. And flipping the batting order around will not be enough.
The Angels need a bat!!! (See 6.) Mr Stoneman, give up a prospect, will you? How many middle infielder do you want to play in 2008? And why did you give OC 4 years in the first place?

Second Guessing:
Mr Scioscia, if you let Kotchman hit behind Vlad, you must believe that he can protect him and get the job done if the opponent pitches around him. Then why pinch hit for him? If you pinch hit for him, you obviously don't trust his ability. Then why did you put him behind Vlad in the first place???

Suggested lineups for the next games:
Against lefties:
Jeff DV, DH (.476, .577, .667)
Kennedy, 2B (.303, .349, .403)
Vlad, RF (.294, .363, .500)
Anderson, LF (.338, .361, .472)
Molina B C (.380, .420, .648)
Finley, CF (.268, .317, .464)
Erstad, 1B (.248, .333, .323)
OC, SS (.240, .330, .313)
Figgins, 3B (.196, .277, .266)

Against righties:
Figgins, CF (.326, .367, .451)
Kennedy, 2B (.330, .388, .412)
Vlad, RF (.322, .375, .585)
Anderson, LF (.263, .297, .419)
Rivera, DH (.262, .302, .508)
Erstad, 1B (.300, .351, .417)
Molina C (.270, .302, .402)
Izturis, 3B (.283, .321, .415)
OC, SS (.254, .297, .371)

I never realised that Figgins was that bad against lefties. You can't have him lead off against a southpaw with that kind of numbers. Maybe he should stop switch-hitting?

Angels @ A's - Liveblogging - Take One

2005-08-11T21:29:00.000+02:00

Ok, rubber game in Oakland. I'll try this liveblogging thing today.

21.35 (CET): Oh dear, Finley in center again.

21.39: Blanton retires the Angels 1-2-3 on 12 pitches.

21.42: Come on, Kendall didn't even try to get out of the way. HBP.

21.47: Oakland gives up an out (?) and bunts him out.
A passed ball moves him to third, but Byrd comes back from 2-0 to strike out Crosby. Chavez grouds out on the first pitch, thank you very much. 12 pitches for Byrd as well.

21.48: Vladdi goes yard. 1-0 Angels

21.52: So Finley's got a track record of not-sucking. Great. He's forty years old for crying out loud. And he flies out to left.

21.56: Two walks and a double play. 36 pitches for Blanton.

22.03: 0-2-single, double play, single, fly out. 25 pitches for Byrd.

22.10: Figgins speed produces another error. Runners at the corners, no outs.

22.12: What a crap! Early in the game the batter should take some pitches and not swing at bad pitches, especially on a 1-0 count. Cabrera behind 1-2, a strike-out in the waiting.

22.13: Fly out, not deep enough. Just as good.

22.16: Erstad strikes out on three pitches. Why is he in the third spot again?

22.17: I think it says a lot that the announcers expect Erstad to make a productive out with runners on 2nd and 3rd, instead of getting a hit or something. Kotchman ground out on the first pitch. Typical Angels inning.

22.20: 58 pitches for Blaton by the way.

22.25: Kotsay hammers a ball high in the air and it lands just in front of the wall. Kotsay in awe of himself is held to a single. Crosby misses a 3-runs-homerun as the ball hooks around the foul pole. I swear my heart stopped for a second.

22.29: With two nice plays by Byrd and Erstad, who at least took his gold glove out of the locker again, the Angels get out of the inning unscathed. Byrd has 29 pitches.

22.37: Kennedy drives home Izturis, who doubled, with two outs. 2-0 Angels

22.48: A single and that's it. Byrd has thrown 66 pitches.

22.54: 1st and 2nd, no outs and Vladdi up.

22.55: Fly out to left. Too bad.

22.56: Kotchman grounds out, nearly a double play ball.

22.58: Finley flies out, inning over. 91 pitches for Blanton, so we probably will see more of him next inning.

23.10: Byrd allows a leadoff single, but gets out of the inning on three fly outs, interrupt by another single. 86 pitches thrown.

23.19: My internet connection just broke down, so I missed a 1-2-3 inning for the Angels and Byrd is pitching again.

23.22: Kielty tries a karate move to avoid the tag, but has no success. A beautyful Strike-Out-Thrown-Him-Out double ends the inning.

23.27: At 104 pitches, Byrd probably won't come out again.

23.30: Figgins, who led off with a double, is caught in a rundown between 3rd and 2nd but manages to stay alive long enough to let OC reach 2nd. One out.

23.33: Erstad grounds out, of course and is intentionally walked. Bengie pinch hits.

23.34: I find myself wondering why Scioscia didn't bring in JD, but force that thought out of my mind by force.

23.35: After falling behing 3-1 the last ball is intentional. Finley is up. Now is the time for him to prove my point that he's useful against lefties.

23.38: YES! Double! 4-0 Angels!

23.43: Izturis grounds out. Seventh inning stretch.

23.44: Donnelly comes in and gives up another lead off hit. A homerum by Payton. 4-1 Angels

23.50: Two more singles, still nobody out and the tying run at the plate.

23.55: Groundball to first, runners move on. Strike out. And just when you think the Angels might get out of it, Chavez hits a 3-run-dinger. The score is tied up at 4-4.

23.59: Duchscherererererer comes in from the pen. Molina grounds out on the frickin' first pitch.

00.03: Kennedy strikes out on three pitches. Unless Vladdi hits one out in the 9th, this is not going to end well.

00.05: Figgins pops out. The Elephants come to bat.

00.08: Shields on the mound.

00.10: 1-2-3. The Angels (and I) needed that.

00.16: Our number two and three hitter do nothing again and Vladdi is once again intentionally walked. After a five minute at-bat, Bengie walks and Finley, who is "red hot" (lol!!!), is up.

00.23: Finley does what he does best against right handed pitchers. He pops up.

00.24: I guess I could not bear a walk-off homerun today.

00.30: Ellis lead off with a base hit. Kendall tries to bunt him over, but Shields gets Ellis at 2nd. Kotsays singles.

00.33: With runners on 1st and 2nd and only one out. K-Rod comes up.

00.34: Groundball for the second out, but Kendall is on third. Will Francisco have confidence in his catcher to block his slider?

00.36: OH MY GOD! What was this??? Bengie throws the ball back to K-Rod and he drops it. Kendall scores from 3rd. Unbelievable. I'm speechless.

That sure feels good!

2005-08-10T12:51:00.000+02:00

I couldn't watch the "real" game (it started at 4 a.m. for me), but if the condensed game on MLB.TV was any indication, that game was a thing of beauty. Despite striking out 13 times, the Angels were able to score 7 runs (6 earned) of Rich "Unhittable" Harden, highlighted by a grand slam from Vladdi. Lackey, meanwhile, struck out six himself, pitching 7 scoreless innings.
That was the beginning of a prolonged losing streak of the A's, whose spirits are totally crushed now, being in second place again. They'll managed to win the wild card one game ahead of the Yankees though, who started their own slide yesterday. Remember, you heard it here first. :)

Don't Panik!

2005-08-07T16:19:00.000+02:00

So the Angels aren't alone in first place anymore. Big deal. Happened before. They even were in second place one day. Want to see what happened afterwards? (Graphic from The Hardball Times)

The Rangers went from beeing in first place to hoovering around .500, 7.5 games out of the wild card race. Of course, one can not expect the A's to do the same, but are they really going to keep up playing like they right now?
Since June, the A's as a team hit .276, .350, .458 after hitting just .177, .320, .345 in April and May (I think it's remarkable that they kept their plate discipline even when they were struggling. .143 isolated discipline as a team over two months, wow! Pujols had 0.84 in 2004). However, the A's are currently putting up team numbers like offensive power-houses like Boston, New York or Baltimore put up over the year and the A's clearly don't belong in this category. But the A's success had always depened on pitching over the last years and this year is no difference. In April and May, their starters had an ERA of 4.58, while since June, it's 3.19. While the A's starters certainly are good, they are not that good. The pitchers benefited from a very strong defense behind them. Nearly every A's pitcher has an ERA that's significantly better than his FIP (e.g. ERA with an average defense behind him) or at least close to it. Even then they've been lucky, because their xFIP (that expected fielding independent pitching) is usually higher than their FIP/ERA, which means that the pitchers are likely to be worse or at least less good than they are doing right now.
Overall, the A's will most likely cool off any time soon. Which is totally what we would have expected anyway, right? Even if they do not, there's no reason to worry. The Angels have a comfortable 4 games lead in the wild card and won't meet the A's before the ALCS and we all know they never get there. So the Angels have to righten their ship, play solid baseball as they did before July and TRADE FOR A BAT!!! Or maybe not. Maybe we let Vlad hit leadoff, so that he takes more pitches, hit Erstad 3rd, so that he hits for more power and let Finley ...
but what do I know.

Some quick thoughts

2005-08-06T11:52:00.000+02:00

Nice way to end a winning streak, Red Sox!
How often do two players in one game steal twice and advance to third twice on an error? Something one should ask Jayson Stark.
A walk on a 1-2 count??? LOL
Congrats Casey!
The A's just can't lose, even when they don't play that great. They score the tying and winning run on only one hit, but are helped out by three walk and a wild pitch. After that, they end the inning striking out and being caught in a rundown at third. Oh man!

Second Guessing

2005-08-05T11:32:00.000+02:00

It's good to see the Angels win two games with a combined score of 18-5 without outhitting the O's. I wonder if that says something about the Angels offense or pitcher or is mere luck. Unfortunately, the Halos were unable to complete the sweep against the Birds, who played under new interim manager and former bench coach Sam Perrozzo after firing Lee Mazzilli. They got some help from the Angels defense (again!), as Erstad made an error that led to two unearned runs in the 3rd. Erstad had twisted his ankle earlier in the game while going over the mound after a popup. He was replace later by Kotchman and is listed day-to-day. Sammy Sosa added two more on his 588th career dinger, following a hit batter. Still, Ervin Santana pitched a fine game, allowing only two earned runs on 5 hits in seven innings, striking out 7 while walking 2. The Angels offense was the problem as they managed only two hits of starter Lopez, but when he left after five, the Angels still couldn't get anything going against the O's pen. Still, they somehow managed to load the bases in the eight with two out against the southpaw Ryan and Finley (2K and a groundout so far) at the plate, but Scioscia decided to pinch hit for him. This decision seems reasonable with Finley being a left-handed hitter. But as I've mentioned before, Finley is actually hitting lefthanders much better than righties (and wasn't bad against lefties in the past). So Ryan is especially tough on lefties then? On the contrary! Lefties had better success against him, hitting .239, .321, .457 compared to .206, .275, .279 for righties. But Scioscia brings in a right-handed batter anyway (to be fair: he was tougher on lefties in the past years). At least Jose Molina was indeed the best option available (other than Finley) and he has hit lefties pretty well this year (.283, .353, .478 in 46 AB), although that's not significantly better than Finley (.280, .330, .484 in 93 AB). Also, Jose's numbers in the past against LHP aren't that great (.264, .301., .364 in 2002-04).
All in all, the decision to bring in Jose is defendable by the numbers, as well as leaving Finley in the game. In my opinion though, Scioscia should have left Finley in, hoping that he gets a big hit and rebuilds some confidence.

Revenge Of The Halos - Gone?

2005-08-02T23:09:00.000+02:00

Where has my post gone??? :'(

Release Finley?

2005-08-02T13:27:00.000+02:00

Since returning from the DL, which most Angels fans hoped would spark his offense, Steve Finley is hitting .255 AVG. Although that's better than his .225 before the break, he now has lost any pop to speak of, slugging .291.
Josh from Pearly Gates and Rev from Halos Heavenare already calling for the "Appier approach", dumping Finley and eating his salary. Although one certainly can't be happy with Finley's performance, I don't think releasing someone is a good idea unless he's stinking up (is that a word?) the clubhouse or you desperately need a roster spot. None of this seems to be the case, so I think the Angels try another approach. I don't know if a 40-year-old would approve going down to the minor leagues to work on his swing, but even if Finley stays on the big league roster, he can be of value. Of course, Figgins should be the everyday centerfielder, with Finley getting a start once in a while to rest Figgins or let him play another position if he needs to. But these starts should come in day games, where Finley is somewhat decent (.263, .306, .450 to .219, .280, .363 in night games - maybe there's something wrong with his eyes?). Also, Finley is still hitting lefthanders fairly well (.281, .333, .494), so should be used as a pinchhitter against southpaws late in the game. So while paying 8 millions for a utility outfielder/pinchhitter isn't excactly a bargain, it's still better than getting nothing at all for your money.
(Sorry for the poor grammar)

State of the Angels - Part III.II

2005-07-07T23:59:00.000+02:00

After taking a look at how the Angels' hitters did so far this season compared to the predictions made by the Baseball Think Factory, I'll now check how the pitchers have fared so far.

Jarrod Washburn (3.06 ERA, 5-3)
Expected: 4.60 ERA, 13-10
Jarrod Washburn is having a quite bizarre season. On the one hand, his ERA is excellent, 4th in the league (he pushed Colon back to 5th place) and he also has the 4th best PR or RSAA (pitching runs or runs saved above average) in the AL with 21, which means that opponents would have score 21 more runs had an average pitcher pitched Washburn's inning instead of himself.
On the other had, his secondary stats are only average at best.
Only 4.7 K/9, which is the worst rate on the Angels staff (if you don't count Prinz and Bootcheck, who have 3 games each) and 39th in the AL.
He allows 2.65 BB/9, which is decent, but not great (29th AL). And Washburn allows more than one hit per inning (118 H in 106 IP), which adds up to a WHIP of 1.41 (35th AL). He doesn't even keep the ball in the park especially well, giving up an average 1.03 dingers in nine innings (12 HR total). He's also hit relatively hard, giving up line drives on 18.9% of his balls in play. Batters facing Washburn hit .290, with an OBP of .345 and .437 SLG. Which is about what Shannon Stewart (.294, .342, .431) has done this year.
Wherever I look, I see only average numbers indicating that Washburn's ERA should be about a run higher (at least).
So what's the reason that it's still so low?
First, Washburn has been helped by the defense behing him. A lot! His FIP (Fielded Independend Pitching, i.e. his ERA with an average defense) is 4.50!!! So if Washburn played, let's say, for the Yankees, his ERA would be 1.50 runs higher.
However, Washburn actually has a relatively high BAIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) of .287 (33th), so where's the defense?
First, nobody has stolen a base of Washburn this year yet. All four baserunners attempting a steal were gunned down. Second, and probably more important, Washburn already had 17 double plays turned behind him (3rd in the league). All the other pitchers with 14 or more DP have groundball to flyball ratios of 1.63, 1.32, 2.02, 1.46 and 2.25, while Washburn's is 1.07. I'm not sure whether this means that Washburn has been lucky or that he really knows how to get a DP when he needs one.

One last thing though. Here are two splits from Washburn:
.331, .377, .515 and
.269, .329, .399
No, these are not his righty-lefty splits, though they are quite similar (.298, .356, .467 to .254, .289, .296), these are his home-away splits. And that's no unusual for him. He has better numbers pitching away at least since 2002 (I don't have stats for '01 and earlier). I have no explanation for this other than that Washburn might feel more pressure pitching in front of his hometown fans. Whatever the reason might be, I just hope that Mike Scioscia keeps these numbers in mind when he arranges the postseason rotation.

State of the Angels - Part III.I

2005-07-03T23:41:00.000+02:00

After taking a look at how the Angels' hitters did so far this season compared to the predictions made by the Baseball Think Factory, I'll now check how the pitchers have fared so far.

Bartolo Colon (3.08 ERA, 11-4)
Expected: 4.60 ERA, 16-12
So far, Colon is obviously having a great season. Right now, he is 4th in the league in ERA, 4th in innings and 3rd in wins. If the Cy Young voting would be today, only Roy Halladay (Blue Jays), Mark Buehrle (White Sox) and maybe Johan Santana (Twins) would finish better than Colon.
Why is Colon so successful this year? What is he doing differently to last year, when he was hit hard and had an ERA of 5.01 (and somehow still managed to win 18 games).
First, he is not missing more bats. His strikeout rate is actually lower than it was last year (6.65 K/9 to 6.83), so his "stuff" is the same as in 2004. But he nearly cut down his BB/9 rate in half (1.76 to 3.07) and he's done a better job of keeping the ball in the park (11 homeruns allowed so far compared to 38 during 2004). That's not great (0.88 HR per 9 innings is 20th in the league. John Lackey is 12th with 0.72), but ok and much better than last year (1.64). Opponents hit a .243 average of him, which is only 10th in the league, but his OBP allowed is only .280, which is good for 4th. When opponents hit Bartolo, they usually don't hit him hard. His .364 SLG against also ranks in the Top 10 (6th). All this adds up to an OPS against of .644, 4th in the league. In other words, hitters facing Colon turn into Orlando Cabrera (.648 OPS, 158th in the league), which you know isn't a good thing if you have seen OC hit this year.
So let's sum up: Throw strikes, keep the ball in the park, try not to get hit too hard and you'll do fine. Having an offense that give you 4.90 runs per game sure is helping, though that's only average run support (53rd).

One last thing, though. Bartolo's Balls in Play Average (Batting Average Against, not including HR or K) is only .267, which is 18th in the league. This is a good rate, maybe a little too good, because it might mean that Bartolo's been a little bit lucky so far (on the other hand, Roy Halladay has a BIPA of only .248. Also, Contreras and Garland of the White Sox are 2nd and 3rd on this list. They certainly have been lucky so far.)

CYP (Cy Young Probability) for Colon: 15%

State of the Angels - Part II

2005-06-26T23:39:00.000+02:00

Shortly before the season, I had another blog for a short period. In one of my first articles, I took a look at the predictions for Angels players from the Baseball Think Factory. I stole this idea from Aaron Gleeman, who had stolen it from someone else. Now, with the first half of the season nearing its end, let's take a look at how the Angels fared so far compared to the expectations before the season. I'll did the infield a few days ago and will check the Halos' outfield.

Outfield:

LF - Garret Anderson (.309, .331, .457 in 2005)
Expected: .299, .325, .488
GA does what he is expected to do. Average around 300, timely hitting (.333 with RISP, 50 RBI), few walks (10). But I'd like to see more power from GA. 8 HR, 15 doubles and 1 triple are not enough. BTF would agree on this one.

CF - Steve Finley (.225, .287, .408)
Expected: .251, .317, .420
You don't have to look at the prediction to realize that Steve Finley had a terrible season, although he has more extra base hits that Garret Anderson (8 HR, 14 2B, 3 3B). He was doing better lately, hitting .279, .333, .465 over the last 30 days. But now he was put on the DL with a sore right shoulder he suffered, oh, when? On April 6th. Are you kidding me? If he was hurt and playing badly, why didn't he take some time off earlier? At least, this explains his refusal to dive for balls, but that's no excuse. Not going on the DL earlier has hurt the team.
I'm not sure if there is hope Finley will bounce back and be a better player once he returns, he's 40 years old after all.

RF - Vladimir Guerrero (.332, .385, .559)
Expected: .333, .405, .568
He has walked a little less than expected, but otherwise, he is again having an MVP season (AL: 4th in Runs Created Per Game, 6h in Gross Production Average, 7th in VORP, more about these stats at HBT or BP). He also has stolen six bases and hasn't committed an error so far. What is there not to like?

C - Molina Brothers (B: .292, .338, .451 - J: .270, .350, .393)
Expected: B: .272, .306, .396 - J: .265, .298, .338
(First, I know that catcher isn't an outfield position. I just forgot to include it the last time)
The Molina brothers are hitting better than expected. Bengie is hitting so well that he might play some DH while his brothers catches. But the former gold-glover seems to have lost some pop on his throws to 2nd though, as 16 of 20 base stealers have reached on him. He also has 5 passed balls. Jose on the other hand is having a gold glove season. He gunned down 56,5% of the runners trying to steal a base (That's 1st in the AL for catchers with more than 25 games caught) with no PB. Also, pitchers caught by Jose have a 3.16 ERA, which is 2nd in the AL behind Mike Redman (MIN), who has nine starts less than Jose.

DH - Jeff DaVanon (.234, .331, .273), Juan Rivera (.252, .284, .432)
Expected: .304, .357, .466 and .280, .367, .436
It's save to say that the Angels aren't getting the expected production from of their "full time" DHs. At least, Mike Scioscia has pinch hitters. If he needs a baserunner, he uses DaVanon (18 BB to 5), if he needs an extra base hit, he goes with Rivera (5 HR, 2 2B to 2 2B). If not one of them improves significantly, Tim Salmon might have a shot grabbing the DH when he returns in September.

State of the Angels

2005-06-23T21:52:00.000+02:00

Shortly before the season, I had another blog for a short period. In one of my first articles, I took a look at the predictions for Angels players from the Baseball Think Factory. I stole this idea from Aaron Gleeman, who had stolen it from someone else. Now, with the first half of the season nearing its end, let's take a look at how the Angels fared so far compared to the expectations before the season. I'll start with the infield today and go on to outfield and pitchers in the next days.

Infield:

1B - Darin Erstad (.298, .358, .404 in 2005)
Expected: .271, .325, .373
Erstad has finally been healthy this season (knock on wood!) and so far exceeded BTF's exceptations. Although, compared to his 2000 season or to other first basemen, his numbers still don't look too great. But we know Erstad means so much more to this club than his numbers tell (and at the latest after his tackle against Estrada, I do believe it), so overall, I guess we can be happy with his performance so far.

2B - Adam Kennedy (.336, .373, .378), Chone Figgins (.278, .334, .419)
Expected: .288, .342, .411 and .297, .357, .412
While Kennedy is hitting for good average and a decent OBP since coming of the DL, his power has been nonexistent so far (only 6 doubles, no HR). With his OBP the highest on the team after Vlad, why not putting him in the leadoff or number two spot?
After a slow start, Figgins numbers are still below expectations. However, he's playing much better lately, hitting .294, .366, .468 over the last 30 days. Let's see how he'll do at the top of the order.

3B - Dallas McPherson (.261, .299, .543)
Expected: .275, .341, .513
D-Mac also was off to a slow start and nearly headed back to AAA, but he got hot just in time and although he's still striking out way too much (56K) and doesn't walk often (11BB), his power is already there and even exceeding expectations. His isolated power (SLG-AVG) of .191 his second on the team to Vlad and higher than that of Sammy Sosa, Larry Walker and Trot Nixon (for example). I'm positive on D-Mac, patience and strike zone judgement will come given time.

SS - Orlando Cabrera (.249, .289, .360)
Expected: .285, .336, .410
Just to tease you: David Eckstein .292, .375, .375
OC's season has been a big disappointment, at least his offense. Low average, few walks (16BB - though you shouldn't expect more than 45 from him even in a good season), very few power (18XBH), that's just about in line with what he did in Montreal before he was traded to the Red Sox. He clearly lacked motivation playing in Montreal, but this doesn't seem to be the case with the Angels. So what's his problem? He makes contact (21K), but only 16.7% his balls in play are line drives, which is good for 173rd (!) place in the majors. You can get by with such a low rate and still have a good season (A-Rod 14,9%, Adam Dunn 16,4%), but you seem to need good power to do so. But OC is also quite unlucky. Only 25.9% of his balls in play are hits (187th in MLB), which is obviously pretty low, even with his low line drive rate. So one can reasonable expect OC's numbers to get better.
On the bright side, defensively, OC has been terrific. His fielding percentage of .987 is second only to Omar Vizquel and his range is decent (9th in the majors, if you believe the stats), way better than Tejada, Jeter, Renteria or Young.

New enemies and old friends

2005-06-15T14:49:00.000+02:00

Ah, interleague play!
It's the time of the year to go out there and make some new enemies. As much as I like to watch the Angels match up against the A's, Rangers and Mariners, none of these rivalries compare to what the Red Sox and Yankees have. It's just not the same kind of intensity and I think it's because they play each other so often, all these incidents and arguments fade in the sheer number of games. So it's nice to see the Halos go to Atlanta, knock out their catcher, have some bean balls thrown and leave with a lasting impression made on the Atlanta team and their fans. Or invite the Washington Nationals for a little equipment checking. Of course, it helps to have fallen Angels with a little anger management deficit on the other team.
The Angels won't play Washington or Atlanto anytime soon (Unless one of these makes it to the World Series), so the memories of the incidents can thrive and grow and won't be washed away by a series of eventless games. Can't wait 'till next year. :)

Last year, when the Angels suspend Guillen for the rest of the season, I thought they were a little harsh on him. I saw him as an emotional guy who couldn't always control his emotions, but good at heart, and I was sad to see him getting traded (and yield relativly little). Now I totally understand Bill Stoneman's decision. I guess Guillen still had some supporters in Anaheim until yesterday when he made comments about Scioscia, saying that his former manager "can go to hell" and was "like a piece of garbage" to him. I'm not sure the Nationals check Donnelly's glove because Guillen told them something, but I think this explanation is more likely than their official version that they spotted "unusual movement on Donnelly's pitches" when watching video tapes.

So Donnelly had pine tar on it, which is not allowed, and faces suspension for that. I understand so far. What I don't understand (because I only played a year of softball and never pitched) is whether this helps the pitcher get additional movement on the ball or not. My guess would be yes, but it seems like pine tar is regularly used by pitchers to get a better grip on the ball in cold weather. Why is it banned then?

Some sports now:
It's hugely disappointing that the Angels now lost a series that they should have swept had everything went normal. After winning game one in a season record 20 hit outbreak, the Angels led 3-1 when "glovegate" happened. Had Donnelly pitched (well), Shield would have had to pitch only one inning and the Angels should have won the game (Okay, that's not really a given, but still...). Also, it's a shame that this whole "pine tar incident" overshadowed Santana's great outing (6.1 IP, 4H, ER, 4BB, 7K). The kid now sports a 3.26 ERA (in only 3 games, of course), about 10 runs lower than after his first outing. I can't decide if he's really that good or if the hitters just are unfamily with him now. Some batters missed his pitches by miles, so I guess he is for real, although there surely will be rougher outings as the season continues.
Even more disappointing was the loss last night. Colon pitched a complete game, 8H, 1ER game (only 2K but 0BB) and took the loss (his second CG loss this season) because the Angels couldn't muster more than 2 hits and 4 walk in 8 innings against Drese (DRESE!!!). The Rangers released that guy because he allowed 50 ER in less than 70 innings for them this year. The Angels had seen him once before this season and he was solid in this outing, going 7 inning with 3ER, but lost. Ok, so the Angels couldn't hit Drese, things like that happen. But then, the Nationals brought in their closer Cordero, who leads the majors with 21 saves and sports a 1.06ERA. The Angels loaded the bases with no (zero, nill, null) outs on two hits and a walk and then failed to score as they struck out (Finley), poped up (B. Molina) and struck out again (McPherson). Arg! I couldn't believe it.
I checked on Tangotigers Win Expectancy List and found out that home teams that had the bases loaded with no outs, one behind in the bot 9th have won the game 73,9% of the time. What does this mean? Nothing probably, I just wanted to look that up.

Angels in first place again

2005-06-11T22:20:00.000+02:00

A lot of things happened since I went 0-3 predicting the Angels series at Fenway Park. The Halos have visited Atlanta, going 2-1 with Erstad scoring the go-ahead run in one game on the most controversial play of the season so far, and are now in New York, where in the beginning of their first game against the Mets, they couldn't find the baseball, whiffing 9 (!) times against Kaz Ishii, who had only struck out 20 in 42 innings this year. Luckily, they also got 6 hits and 2 walks of him and made most of it, scoring 5 runs. They added 7 more of Mets relievers to win 12-2.

Also, the Rangers hot streak is finally over. They have lost 4 in a row, leaving the Angels alone on top of the AL West with a little breezing room.

So the Angels lead their division and I wondered how they are doing it. While the offense has become (more) alive the last weeks and the pitching was solid to great most of the time, I took a look some graphs at the Hardball Times.

How do the Angels win their games? Hitting or pitching?
I'm stating the obvious, but it's pitching. The Angels offense is only average, literally. They score an average 4.73 runs per game, which is nearly the same as the league average of 4.72, but still good enough for 6th place just ahead of (ouch) Tampa Bay. Interestingly, the Halos are below average in all major offense categories like batting average (.262 to .265 - 10th), on-base-percentage (.316 to .331 - 11th) and slugging (.403 to 416 - 11th). So how do they do it? The Angel hitters are clutch. They hit .301 with runners in scoring position, only the Twins and, ah, Tampa Bay are better.

Are the pitchers so good or is it the defense?
I always thought the Angels pitchers had a pretty good defense behind them, at least that's what my PC game used to tell me. And with current or former gold glovers at first, in center and behind the plate, I didn't doubt it. But it turns out that the Angels defense (=their Defense Efficiency Ratio) is only average. On the bright side, their pitching was really outstanding. Angels pitchers' FIP (Fielding Independent Runs = the proportion of ERA that pitchers are solely responsible for, invented by Tangotiger) is 4, leaving the Angels right at the top with the Twins, only behind the Indians (I have to admit I didn't expect them there). As happy as I am about the quality of our pitching, I think that good fielding tends to be more predictable than good pitching. And with Escobar's current injury woes, if another starter gets hurt, this strength can disappear quickly. But before I start inviting trouble by talking like that, let's take a look at what made Angels pitcher so good:
They get easy out! They pace the league with 7.1 K per 9 innings (next are the O's with 6.9, average is 6.0) and also get the most infield flies (.135 compared to .112 league average). And when you don't walk to many guys (2.9 /9IP, 3 is average), you'll always do good.
The Angels actually have a flyball staff, with a 1.12 groundball to flyball ratio (1.23 average), which might explain why the Angels defense is only average since we don't have much speed in the outfield.
Meanwhile, I found out something very interesting about the Rangers: They only allow 0.7 homeruns per game (the Angels are a little better than average with 0.9 to 1.0) despite playing their home games in a hitters park. While part of this is certainly explained by their groundball to flyball ration of 1.40, they only allow 9% of all flyballs to leave the park (11% average) and that's the lowest percentage in the AL. To me, that looks like they have been lucky so far and that their 4.61 team ERA will rise further, making it harder to keep pace with the Angels.

Angels pitching & fielding

2005-06-07T13:48:00.000+02:00

There was a very nice article on the Hardball Times by Studes about pitching and fielding today, so if you haven't read it, I suggest you check it out (I can't really imagine that anyone who is not reading the HBT would visiting my site, but ...).
Here are the things I found most interesting about Angels pitching and fielding:

Kelvim Escobar is dominant
Every Angel fan knows that Escobar is the ace of the stuff (when healthy), but did you know that he is the 4th most dominant pitcher in the leagues? Studes introduced a stat he called Dominance, which is the percentage of batters faced that strike out or hit an infield fly (the easiest non-K-out). The two leading pitchers, Pedro Martinez (.354) and Johan Santana (.349), are in another league, but right after A.J. Burnett (.309) comes Kelvim Escobar, who dominates 30,5% of the batters he faces. These four are the only pitchers with .300+ dominance.

Escobar and Washburn have been unlucky so far
I'm not talking about injuries here (*knock on wood*), but it looks like the defense behind both pitchers hasn't been as good as it should have been. Studes introduced Expected Defense Efficiency Ratio, which is the expected percentage of balls in play turned into outs (without HR) based on line drive, outfield flies and infield flies percentage. Washburn, who should have 71,1% of BIP turned into outs, actually had only a 67,4% percentage. For Escobar, the numbers are 73,3% and 69,7%. So there is reasonable hope that both pitchers will get better (not that they have been bad so far to begin with).

I'll try to write more when I have time, but I have to go to my courses right now.
See you later
Your Cindy Fluffykins

DS-Dilemma-Time

2005-06-03T15:13:00.000+02:00

It's time again to rethink my loyalities as my two favorite teams team up for a rematch of last year's ALDS. Last year (while praying that the Angels would make the postseason at all) I hoped that Boston would have to play Minnesota and Anaheim New York in the Division Series, but it came different. While I was a little disappointed that the Angels got swept 3-0 by the Sox, I was quite happy about the result, because I wanted the Red Sox to finally beat the Yankees and win the World Series so that all the Boston fans could die peacefully one day having seen the Red Sox on top once in their lifes. I got my wish last year (Which means I only had to wait two years until "my team" finally won it all - I had to wait about 12 years before Werder Bremen finally won the German soccer championship - by the way: Bayern Munich are the Yankees of German soccer: the evil empire), but I propably hadn't suffered enough to make me a real diehard member of Red Sox nation, so this year, the Angels are my MVP Baseball franchise on the PC and the team I will root for this weekend, this october and for good and ill until relocation tears us apart. :)
Still, I would be most happy with a 2-1 series win for the Angels, accompanied by three straight losses for the Rangers, Yankees and O's.

Angels @ Red Sox
Friday: Kelvim Escobar (2-2, 3.56 ERA) vs. David Wells (3-4, 5.96 ERA)
The Angels should win this one if Escobar can pitch 6 or maybe 7 innings. Wells was ok in his last start and the Angels have a lot of left-handed batters, but the Halos are hot enough right now to score 5 runs of Wells, plus two more of Alan Embree. Expect a good night from Garret Anderson, who is .430 in 62 at-bats against Wells.
Saturday: Bartolo Colon (6-3, 2.75 ERA) vs. Bronson Arroyo (4-2, 3.98 ERA)
I like Bronson Arroyo very much, because he cannot blow fastballs by the hitters and has to rely on his slider instead (I'm not a fan of power pitchers, you know), but he was shaky in his last starts. Colon was very good this year, but the Boston hitters will make him throw a lot of pitches and they are good fastball hitters. I don't expect anyone having a night like A-Rod had against Colon, but Boston will score a fair share of runs of Colon. I expect this to be a high scoring game. The Angels will lose on a three run homerun allow by Esteban Yan.
Sunday: Jarrod Washburn (3-3, 3.80 ERA) vs. ???
Washburn returns to Fenway Park, where he gave up a walk-off homerun to David Ortiz to end the ALDS last year. So naturally Washburn will have a great game and redeem himself, no matter whom he will face on the mound.

Go Halos!

D-Mac

2005-06-02T19:24:00.000+02:00

Slowly, but steadily Dallas McPherson is working his way onward to respectability in the Major Leagues. After he looked a little lost early, hitting just .211, .250, .316 in March and April, he is now only 12 points behind Troy Glaus in batting average. While his .250, .308, .450 still isn't something to brag about, if you look at his May numbers and his at-bats, you'll realize that Dallas is adjusting well and gaining confidence. McPherson's line over the last 30 days is .273, .333, .519 and shows that his improvement isn't just a fluke but real positive development (at least that's what I'm telling myself). Over the last week, McPherson had superstar form at the plate, hitting 4HR (one a walk-off dinger) with 9RBI and a mind-sizzling .370, .430, .889 (!!!). He certainly won't keep this up, but it's good to see that he is capable of having this kind of hot streak at the major league level (or to have any Angels having a hot streak at all).
Maybe it was a good thing for Dallas that Vladimir Guerrero went down with a shoulder injury so that he couldn't hide behind him and felt more committed to step up and produce.

Back Home

2005-06-02T18:32:00.000+02:00

While I was away visiting my parents in the beautiful town of Osnabrueck for a few days, a lot of things happened.
First, my blog was mentioned by Richard from Pearly Gates, which is pretty cool by itself, but it also helped increase my visitor total tenfold. :) Thank you very much!!!
Second, the Angels split a low scoring series with the White Sox and then swept the Royals in an 30-run offensive outburst over three games. Since then, the Angels lost two close games in Chicago and salvaged the series with a 10-7 victory yesterday when K-Rod struck out the side in the 9th while allowing a double and walking three. Yes, I agree with Josh (also Pearly Gates) that walking Frank Thomas with the bases loaded was probably a good idea.
Third, the Red Sox thrashed the Yankees for 24 runs in two games after losing the first game in New York. This humiliation shocked the Yankees so much that they promptly lost two games against the Royals.
And last but not least, Ex-Angel David Eckstein made two great plays yesterday for the Cardinals in Colorado. You can watch them on MLB.com today, so go there quickly. I like Orlando Cabrera, but I miss Eckstein and I still don't understand why they let him go (It's even more difficult to understand if you see Eckstein hitting .302, .377, .392 compared to Cabrera's .240, .300, .347. It would be nice to have a player getting on base more than once in three tries.

Los Angelos Angels Of Anaheim @ Los Angelos Dodgers

2005-05-22T22:10:00.000+02:00

The Angels aim for the sweep against the Dodgers to win the battle for Los Angelos once and for all! The Dodgers send Boston's postseason hero Derek Lowe (3.07 ERA) to the mound against Paul Byrd (4.15 ERA). Compared to yesterday, the Angels field an offensive juggernaut thanks to the return of Garret Anderson, the Halos' only .300+ hitter. Ex-Dodger Finley isn't in the lineup today.

The Game
- The first inning starts in typical Angels fashion. Figgins bunts for a hit, steals second, goes to third on Kennedy's single, stays there as Kennedy is caught stealing and scores on a ground out by Erstad. 1-0 Angels
- Byrd starts well with a 1-2-3 inning.
Juan Rivera makes a case for himself as the future DH as he leads off the second inning with a homerun. 2-0 Angels
- Paul Byrd was one strike away from another 1-2-3 inning, but then he Ledee hits a 2-2 pitch over the right field wall. 2-1 Angels
- A two-out-double from Erstad is wasted as the Halos fail to score in an inning for the first time today in the 3rd. :)
-Perez works a work and comes home on a two-out-bloop-single by Drew. 2-2

Meanwhile, Matt Clement finishes the 9th inning of his complete game, 4 hit, 110 pitch, 5-2 victory. Good job Mr. Goatee!

- Rivera singles up the middle, but cannot advance as Josh Paul strikes out on a check swing (!) as Rivera steals second.
- Byrd walks Bradley but then picks him off at first. Ledee pops up, but Cabrera looses the ball in the sun for a double. But Byrd retires Philips on a fly out to Figgins in center.
- Figgins singles with one out, but Kennedy grounds into a double play to end the first half of the game.
- Perez leads of the bottom of the inning with a double, goes to third on a bunt from Lowe and scores on a single by Izturis. 3-2 Dodgers
- The Angels start the inning with two singles by Erstad and Anderson, but neither Rivera nor McPherson nor Cabrera can score or advance them.
- Byrd works a quick 1-2-3 inning and keeps the Angels close.
- The Angels send pinchhitters to the plate in Pride and Finley, but both strike out. Figgins flies to center for an easy inning for Derek Lowe.
- Kevin Gregg comes in and immediately gives up a homer Philips (TO PHILIPS!!!). After he gets Perez to fly out, he allows two singles and leaves the game and hopefully the Angels major league club for good. Jake Woods comes in and gives up a run scoring single to J.D. Drew. Choi lines to Rivera, who catches it from his knees and makes an offline throw to first, prompting Erstad to dive for it. Woods then strikes out Kent to end the inning. 5-2 Dodgers
Kevin Gregg now owns a comical 7.77 ERA. I hope I never have to see him pitch again for the Angels.
- Yhency Brazoban (Nice name!) relieves Lowe and makes quick work of the Halos 1-2-3.
- Jake Woods is back on the mound. He allows single to Bradley, gets Ledee to fly out and then has to watch as McPherson's high throw allows Philips to reach first. Another single by Robles with two outs gives Woods an unearned run. 6-2 Dodgers
- Eric Gagne comes into the game although it's not a save situation. But it doesn't really bother him, so 1-2-3 the game is over. Final score: Dodgers - Angels 6-2

Conclusion & Notes
The Angels went hitless in their last 12 at-bats and one cannot overlook the fact that they only scored 5 runs in the last two games. The nine runs in the first game were against a starter who hasn't had an ERA under 5 since 1999 and in the 9th inning of 4-0 ballgame.
Orlando Cabrera still can't hit even if he faces familar NL pitching as he went 1-15.
At least, Figgins is getting better again. He went 5-12 with 4 RBI, 3R and 3SB.
The pitching is still strong, Washburn (7IP, 5H, 0R) and Lackey (6.1IP, 5H, 1ER, 10K) are really getting it done and even Byrd delivered a quality start (6IP, 5H, 3R). And all Angels reliever not named Gregg didn't allow an earned run in 6.1 IP.

The Halos win the Freeway Series 2-1 and are now LA's official Nr.1 team. But with Guerrero on the DL, you can hardly call with weekend a success for the Angels. Let's hope he returns quickly and does not require surgery.

Ex-Boston Braves @ Boston Red Sox

2005-05-22T17:23:00.000+02:00

In a battle of generations, 39-year-old knuckleballer Tim Wakefield faces off against 21-year-old Kyle Davies. I have never heard of this guy, but he has a better ERA than Wakefield. 0.00 against 3.61 :). So obviously, he's a rookie making his first major league start. Another clash of generations takes places at DH. 29-year-old David Ortiz isn't exactly young, but he looks like a rookie if you see that Atlanta counters with 46-year-old Julio Franco.
Another interesting thing to watch is Jason Varitek catching tonight. Usually, Doug Mirabelli is Wakefield's catcher, but he is on the DL. It will be interesting to see if Varitek can handle the knuckler. I expect at least 5 wild pitches/passed balls tonight.

The Game
- Furcal leads off and reaches on an error by Renteria. After Trot Nixon goes into the stands to catch a foul ball (which means he will win a gold glove this year!), Furcal steals 2nd and could have been out if Renteria had hold on to the baseball.
- Chipper Jones walks and Adam LaRoche hits a long fly ball to right, but Trot Nixon makes a great running catch at the bullpen wall (Hey, I was only joking with the gold glove).
- Wakefield knuckles one over the plate for strike three to Andruw Jones. Inning over.
- Davies starts with a strike, but runs out of luck quickly as Damon singles to lead thing off.
- There is wild pitch number one, but it's thrown by Davies, not Wakefield. Damon to third.
- Renteria flies out to right and Mondesi throws a bullet to third, but Damon makes it anyway. So Mondesi has at least one skill, even if it's not hitting. Maybe he should try to pitch? I means, he's playing in Atlanta.
- David Ortiz strikes out on a breaking ball and naturally disagrees. A long stare from the home plate umpire convinces him.
- Manny Ramirez has looked terrible in most games I watched on TV so far this year. I think he is just not motivated. This time, he flies out on a decent line drive to Mondesi.
- Switch-hitter Estrada hits right handed against Wakefield, but it doesn't help him as he flies out to right.
- The best 46-year-old hitter in baseball history flies out to Damon, followed by a pop up by Brian Jordan.
- 2005 gold glover Trot Nixon flies out to center, Varitek grounds out and Millar pops out and we're already in the 3rd.
- Tim Wakefield throws less knuckleballs than usually because Varitek is not really comfortable catching them. After Wakefield strikes out Mondesi, he falls behind 3-0 to Furcal and then challenges him with a 78mph hea..., ah, somewhat fastball. He walks him with the next pitch anyway.
- Nearly the first passed ball, but Varitek can keep it under control. Two pitches and Furcal hasn't attempted to steal yet? Wakefield and Varitek seem to think the same way as I do. They pitch out and get Furcal on a close play.
- Marcus giles doubles on a fly ball to right field that gets past Nixon (that might cost him his gold glove). Chipper Jones brings him home with a single to left. 1-0 Braves
- LaRoche ends the inning with a fly ball to Damon
- Bill Mueller treats his knees with a walk to first to lead of the bottom of the 3th and Mark Bellhorn does what he does best, he strikes out.
- Damon singles up the middle, but Renteria strikes out and Ortiz grounds out to end the inning.
- Andruw Jones can't find the knuckler and strikes out the second time tonight, so does Estrada. But Franco demonstrates the virtues of age as he's patient and works a walk, followed by a single to left by 39-year-old Jordan.
- 34-year-old young gun Mondesi advances both oldies two bases with a double. 2-0 Braves
- Furcal flies out to shallow center to end the two-out-rally.
- Davies strikes out Ramirez on three pitches, then throws three straight balls to Nixon, then three strikes again. He walks the next batter Varitek and allows a single to Millar, but Mueller grounds out on the first pitch to end the inning.
- Giles starts the 5th inning with a ground rule double and Jones bloops a single to left to put runners on the corners. Giles scores on a timely wild pitch and Chipper goes to 2nd. Still no outs.
- LaRoche walks on four pitches and the Red Sox are lucky that the runners don't go as the balls gets away from Varitek for a moment. Wakefield strikes out Andruw Jones, but gives up a single to Estrada, scoring Chipper. It doesn't get any better as Franco doubles to score LaRoche. The Red Sox finally get the second out on the sac fly by Jordan. Mondesi pops up to end the pain for this inning. 6-0 Braves
- Bellhorn flies out, Damon walks and Renteria strikes out, but Ortiz singles to put runners at the corners with two outs and Ramirez at the plate. Now would be the right time to prove me wrong and hit one over the green monster. Davies strikes him out to get out of the jam.
- Halama relieves Wakefield and get Furcal to hit a ground ball to short, but Furcal reaches on a throwing error by Renteria. Furcal gets to 2nd on a wild pitch. Giles grounds to 3rd and Bill Mueller throws the baseball into the seats behind first base. Maybe this is Millar's fault after all? He's just not a good target.
- Jones flies out to right and Giles goes to third. Now, Boston brings the infield in. Do they really think they can still win this? We'll see.
- LaRoche grounds out to Millar and does the job himself, keeping Giles at 3rd. Halams strikes out Jones and escapes without and earned run. Still 7-0 Braves
- Jorge Sosa relieves Davies and he prompty walks Nixon and gives up a single to Varitek and the Red Sox have runners on first and second with nobody out.
- The runners advance on a wild pitch and the Red Sox are finally on the board as Millar fights off a 1-2 pitch to right field for a single and an RBI.
- Bill Mueller also picks up an RBI, but a costly one as he grounds into a double play. Bellhorn makes the third out as he pops up. 7-2 Braves

- And then my internet connection broke down and it took me until noon today to fix it. :(

The Red Sox added a run in the 7th and two more in the 9th, while Halama and Mantei held the Braves down. But tying run Varitek flied out to end the 9th and the Red Sox lost by the final score of 5-7.

The rubber game of the series will be played at 2.05 with Smoltz and Clement on the mound. I hope my connection stays alive tonight!

Los Angelos Angels Of Anaheim @ Los Angelos Dodgers

2005-05-21T21:48:00.000+02:00

With Vladdi out after an ill-advised head first slide to home plate (with the Angels holding a big lead) the Angels lineup does not contain a hitter with an average of .270 or better. Adam Kennedy leads the group with .265 (Guess what his SLG is! Right, it's .265). Finley is the only hitter slugging over .400 (and barely: .403 - the three best Guerrero .520, Molina (!) .479 and Anderson .434 are all on the bench or DL). The highest OBP is owned by Jeff DaVanon with .309. That's probably why he's the number three hitter today. How is this lineup supposed to score a run?

The Game
- Well, the game is on the way and the above question is already answered as Jose Molina hits a homerun in the top of the 3rd to put the Angels in front 1-0.
- Lackey's not looking too sharp out there early, but he's helped himself with two double plays so far. Now, he allows a single and then a walk with no outs, but Brad Penny strikes out on a bunt attempt and Lackey wiggles out of the Jam.
- Nothing happens in the 4th except that the reporter says that Steve Finley had a Hall-Of-Fame career. Hm. He has (or will have) 100+ triples, 400+ doubles, 300+ HR, 2500+ hits, and five gold gloves, but will this be enough? Hardly. In times in which even 500 HR might not be enough to enter the hall, Steve Finley will most surely fall short.
- Looks like I couldn't have been more wrong about Lackey. After five innings, he has only allowed two infield singles, a walk, hit a batter, had a baserunner on an error and struck out nine (!) batters. Still, I think the Angels will have to put a couple more runs on the board to win this one.
- In the bottom of the 6th, Lackey strikes out his 10th batter and ties his career record. Then, he allows a single and two long flyballs to center field (one of them was caught nicely on the run by Finley) which gives me the impression that Lackey is tiring a bit. If K-Rod were available, I would go with Donnelly in the 7th, but I expect Lackey to be back for another inning at least.
- He is and quickly falls behind to Bradley, who hits a double to left field. Lackey gets Ledee to ground out to the mound, keeping Bradley at second, but a wild pitch advances him to third anyway with only one out.
- Lackey tries to strike Perez out, but he fouls off some pitches and finally singles to right field to tie the game.
- Donnelly comes in and allows another single on a hit-and-run to put runners at the corners.
- He strikes out pinch-hitter Saenz, two outs.
- He gets ahead 1-2, 2-2 and finally pops the batter up. Puh, what a nailbiter.
- I predict a walk-steal-bunt-sac fly inning for the Angels now.
- Carrara pitches for the Dodgers and he has been very hitable with a .324 BAA and an 4.24 ERA this year. With Eric Gagne waiting in the bullpen, it's now or never.
- Jose Molina singles, but is out when McPherson tries to bunt him over. McPherson reaches 2nd on a wild pitch. Then Figgins comes through with a double just inside the bag and the Angels reclaim the lead. 2-1
- Darin Erstad is walked intentionally (probably raising his OBP dramatically), still only one out.
- Even Jeff DaVanon works a walk on a ball four wild pitch. Figgins is thinking about going home, but stops at 3rd.
- Kelly Wunsch comes in to face Finley. Wunsch is German for "wish" by the way - so I wish for a grand slam, but all I get is a single to right. I (and especially the Angels) take it gladly. 3-1 Angels
- Duaner Sanchez relieves Wunsch. He gets Rivera to ground out into a fielder's choice at home and then Cabrera to ground out softly to the mound. So they leave them loaded and it's still only 3-1 Angels
- Scot Shields relieves Donnelly to set himself up. He get pops up Choi, Drew and Kent for a quick bottom 8th.
- Eric Gagne comes in and faces ... ah, who? Scot Shields? How about a double switch Mr. Scioscia? Shields strikes out (of course) on a breaking ball in the zone that had him jumping away from the plate, laughing afterwards.
- Molina strikes out but seems as good mooded as Shields after his at bat.
- McPherson works a walk after a 1-2 count. Nice work, young boy!
- Chone Figgins grounds out and Shields comes back for the 9th.
- Bradley leads off with a double and Ledee works a full count and then takes a two-seamer for strike three that he thinks was up and in (he might have been right). One out.
- Perez grounds out to short, leaving the runner at 2nd.
- Shields has Bako 2-2, then runs the count full. But instead of finishing him off, Shields unloads a wild pitch that nearly hits the batter. Runners at the corners, winning run at the plate.
- Shields hangs one, but Philips fouls it back. Then Philips makes better contact, but hits a fly ball to Finley. Game Over.
Angels win 3-1

Conclusion & Notes:
Nice game, not much offense from both teams, but good pitching by Lackey. It's a shame he didn't get the W. Brad Penny also did a good job, but nobody expected the Angels to go on an offensive tear today. They managed to get three runs and that was enough today.
Kennedy went 0-3 and his average dropped to .250. Team leader is now Figgins with .261 after going 2-5 with RBI and R. Finley and Molina both went 2-4.

Interleague Play Weekend

2005-05-21T21:17:00.000+02:00

I realize that most die hard baseball fans hate interleague play, but I really like it. Maybe it's because I don't have any baseball tradition myself, but I don't understand what's the big problem. Some say, it takes away from the All-Star Game and the World Series. Are you kidding me? That the Dodgers play the Angels in LA won't make a World Series between the two teams any less interesting. Of course, rivalry series make the schedule harder for some teams, but schedules aren't fair in the first place (You know, with the Devil Rays playing the Yankees and the Red Sox and the Orioles now), so what? Nobody in the NFL complains (Or do they? I don't really know).
However, while some matchup like Mariners - Padres or Tigers - Diamondbacks don't excite anyone (but is Mariners - Tigers so exciting?), I'm really looking forward to watch the free- and subway series. It gives me the joy of watching Jarrod Washburn work a walk or having a pitcher double (against Randy Johnson) and scoring a run against the Yankees (He should have been out, but I take it). I always enjoy watching the Yankees loose a game, but (after the Red Sox) it's the most fun if it's against the Mets.
Long story short, I'm a fan of interleague play and this is a great baseball weekend for me. :)

From zero to ?

2005-05-20T02:10:00.000+02:00

Now that I have a counter on my blog, I have to face the fact that nobody actually reads the crap I'm writing. I put the counter on a couple of days ago and it's still stuck on 000000. So, naturally, I thought about ways to change that. I obviously need more sites linking to mine, so I should link to more sites myself. I also officially declare this blog a Angels / Red Sox blog, so that fans know what to expect here. Let's see if I can crack the dozen by next week. :)

Halos split doubleheader

2005-05-15T11:40:00.000+02:00

The Halos (or better: the Hals, because they have no "O" - all probs for this atrocious pun go to Matt Allen, not me) managed to split the doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers on saturday despite doing hardly anything against the starters Bonderman and Maroth. They somehow managed 18 hits (only 4 for extra bases) and 5 runs and only drew 2 walks in both games combined. To be fair, it's hard to draw a walk if you're constantly behind in the count 0-2 or 1-2. As I recall it, Jose Molina, who was the only one who walked against Maroth, had to battle back from 0-2 to draw a free pass. While Detroit's starter struck out 13, Colon and Washburn both fanned three and walked three. And while Colon was limited to 5 innings due to a rain delay, Washburn battled for 7 innings to keep the Angels close.
So what was the offense's problem? Not enough patience?
I'm a big fan of OBP and I really think the Angels need to draw more walks especially at the top of the order. Imagine what Figgins and Erstad could do if they were on-base at least 35% of the time (I'm modest here). But today, patience certainly wasn't the problem. It doesn't help to be patient if the opposing pitcher throws strikes with the first pitch all day long. The Angels' hitters were constantly behind in the count. Most often, they had to put the ball in play with 2 strikes on them and hardly ever had a three ball count. They watched so many first pitches in the zone that I thought, "come on, be more agressive". I think you have to hit at least some first pitch strikes to make the pitcher be aware that he can't throw anything at you to start the AB. Sometimes, patience is just not what you need.
Speaking of patience, I don't understand why the Tigers even bothered to swing the bat at all against Esteban Yan when he clearly couldn't find the zone to save his life. He's listed to have thrown 18 pitches, only 8 for strikes, at least half of them on swings at something out of the zone. Oh, and a wild pitch, too. Still, he managed to get out of the inning with only a walk, no hits (obviously, there just was no pitch to hit) and no runs. While this looks like a good inning on paper, I wouldn't have the confidence to throw him in a close game again any time soon.

What's wrong with...

2005-05-07T22:13:00.000+02:00

... Hideki Matsui?
After he punished the Red Sox in the first games of the season hitting two homeruns and .440, .481, .760 overall (OPS 1.241!), Matsui was a sure thing MVP for many. One month later, Matsui is hitting .231, .316, .385 (OPS .701). And things are getting worse, as Matsui hit .208, .303, .327 over the last 30 days and .160, .267, .280 in the last week in 25 AB.
So what's wrong with him?
I have no idea, of course. The games against the Red Sox should have given him a lot of confidence, but today his slump has really gotten to his head. He looked completely lost in the game against the A's today, going 0-4 with 2 Ks, taking a called third strike right down the middle.
As a Yankee hater, I don't really mind a Yankee being in that kind of slump, but I wonder if or when he will break out of it. Of course, I don't expect Matsui to hit under the Mendoza line for too long, but he certainly isn't used to this kind of struggles, so it might affect him for a little longer.

Is Derrek Lee hot or what?

2005-05-06T23:43:00.000+02:00

With Mark Prior pitching a strong game, the Cubs still trailed 0-1 in the bottom of the 8th. Pinch hitter Jose Macias lead off with a single and Jerry Hairston Jr. sacrified him to second. That closed the book on Cory Lidle, who had pitched a four hit gem. Rheal Cormier got Corey Patterson to ground out, advancing Macias to 3rd with Derrek Lee at the plate. Instead of intentionally walking the only major leaguer hitting above .400, the Phillies went to their closer Billy Wagner. After three straight ball, Wagner decided that pitching around Lee would make him a coward, so he challenged him. Brave decision, but also stupid as Lee hit a homerun to center field and the Cubs took the lead. The Cubs' "closer by lack of alternatives" LaTroy Hawkins threw nearly as hard a Wagner and with even less success. He allowed two singles and a walk to load the bases. Then, Placido Polanco hits a liner directly into Hawkins glove. He then checked third, second and finally threw it to first, hitting the runner in the back. Of course, the ball ricochet into the stands, allowing the runners to advance two bases, giving the Phillies the lead. Billy Wagner came to the plate so he could save his own win. The Cubs went quietly in the 9th and lost a game so typically for their season so far: Good starting pitching, cold hitters except for a hot Derrek Lee and a shaky closer.

Yankees revamp their lineup

2005-05-04T14:06:00.000+02:00

The Yankees, having just finished their first losing month in nearly two years, decided to tinker with their lineup to get their ship back on track. They let Hideki Matsui take over center field from Bernie Williams, switched Tony Womack from second base to left and called up Robinson Cano to play first base.
The most obvious decision is to send Matsui to center field. He played this position back in Japan and might be more comfortable there than in left. His arm is weak, but it's not like the Yankees had a cannon in center before in Williams.
That Tony Womack is moved to left field is more inscrutable to me. He played 122 games in right field for Arizona in 1999, but other than that, he never played more than a handful of games in the outfield. And his hitting line of .270, .316, .315 with 4R and 4 RBI is much more tolerable at 2B than in LF. His batting average, on-base-percentage and slugging percentage would rank 17th, 21st and 23rd (and next to last to Scott Podsenik, who is faster than Womack, at least) respectively among ML left fielders. His SLG would be the lowest of a Yankee left fielder since Gerald Williams, who slugged .191 in just 38 games.
The Yankees can't really be planning to finish the season with Womack in left, which means that we are going to see a trade for an outfielder sooner than later.
Before his call-up, I had never heard before of Robinson Cano, so I looked up his stats.
In 2004, Cano hit .301, .356, .497 in 74 games at AA and .259, .316, .403 in 61 games in AAA. This year in spring training, he hit .286, .306, .371, which makes me wonder why he didn't get Womack's job in the first place. But even if he plays better than Womack did so far this year (which is at least possible, considering his poor numbers), Cano isn't the solution the Yankees are looking for. That a second baseman was called up when the team needed an outfielder probably says more about the Yankees' farm system than about Cano's ability.
I first thought that the Yankees should give Bubba Crosby a chance in center, but when I saw he hit .141, .185, .247 I wondered why he was on the roster of a 200-million-$-team in the first place.
So, I expect that the Yankees will give Cano some playing time and if he does fairly well, they'll trade him for an old, overpriced outfielder. If he sucks, he's sent back to the minors and the Yankees will trade for an old, overpriced outfielder on a team that desperately need to cut payroll.
So, is the team any better now?
Hardly, but at least Joe Torre has a bunch of DH/pinch hitters to choose from in Williams, Giambi and Sierra (once he returns from the DL) now. Also the starting pitching is looking a little peaky right now and there is still a lot of season left to get "real" injuries for anybody. In the current state, this Yankee team probably isn't good enough to make the postseason if Orioles stay hot and Boston plays at least half as good as they can.
So, I think we will see lots of rumors flowing around in the next weeks and I won't be surprised if some impact deals are done before the trade deadline gets really close.

May 1st - Angels @ Twins

2005-05-01T21:23:00.000+02:00

It's sunday evening here in Germany, which means it's baseball time for me. I'll start with an hour of Blue Jays @ Yankees and then change to Angels @ Twins (Finally an early Angels game!), maybe switching to Red Sox @ Rangers during the commercial break.

Notes:
Angels @ Twins
The Angels lost two in a row and now have to win against Cy Young winner Johan Santana, who's on a 17 game winning streak) to avoid the sweep. The Angels' pitcher will be A-Rod new best friend Bartolo Colon. Let's hope he will not make new friends within the Twins lineup today (Justin Morneau may be a candidate).

The game's a great pitching match-up so far. Santana has just started to get some strike outs, when Vladdi hits a ball of the left field foul pole for a homerun. 1-0 Angels
Jose Molina leads of the 6th and is looking for the heat. He gets it and hits a long homerun to left. 2-0 Angels. That were the homeruns #4 & #5 allowed by Santana this year. So no smallball for the Angels today.
Bartolo Colon continues to look good. He has just allowed one hit so far (a single) and gets a ton of groundballs. He also throws a lot of two-seam-fastballs and gets good calls from the home plate umpire.
Santana goes 1-2-3 in the 7th, so Colon doesn't get much rest this inning.
But it looks like he doesn't need any rest as he strikes out Castro on a 96mph heater. After a short scare on a fly ball to the track in right, Colon strikes out Morneau again on a generous call.
Santana makes a bid to strike out the side, but finally walks Jeff DaVanon.
By the way, Santana may be a great pitcher, but his pick-up move is so slow, a runner might get picked off but still make it to second before the first baseman has the ball.
You cannot say the same about Redman's throw to second. DaVanon is caught stealing to end the inning.
Meanwhile, in Chicago, this happend with two out:
Grand Slam, walk, walk, homerun
and within 1/3 of an inning, Mark Prior raises his extraordinary 1.29 ERA to an ordinary 3.75 Ouch!
Colon (who had just throws 84 pitches) gets another out, when Jones hits a high chopper. Colon jumps high, but can't get it, and hurts his ankle (probably) on the play. He leaves the game and Scot Shields comes in the game with one man on 1st.
Shields runs the count full and the Twins get lucky when a hit draws Figgins to the bag and instead of a double play it's runners at the corners with one out.
Shields falls behind, 2-0, 3-1 and walks pinch hitter Mauer to load the bases.
Sciosia decides he needs a K and calls to the bullpen for K-Rod.
K-Rod throws two sliders that freeze pinch hitter LeCroy and the count is 1-1. Then, on another slider, LeCroy hits it up the middle, but Cabrera is there and the Angels get just what they needed, a double play. Puh!
Santana won't win today, he's replaced by Rincon. The Angels do nothing and K-Rod starts the Bottom of the 9th by serving up a hanging slider that Stewart takes out. 2-1 Angels
K-Rod falls behind, 3-1 to the next hitter, 3-2. Punto hits a ball foul and then another ball to Erstad for the first out. 2-2 to Lew Ford, fouls on off, then hits a tough one to McPherson, who makes a good throw to Erstand, two outs. 1-2 to Morneau, then Morneau strikes out on a slider.
So the Angels avoid the sweep, stay in first place in their division.
Santana loses for the first time since last July. It's a pity, because he pitches a very good game, only made two mistakes, so he certainly didn't deserve the L today.

April 24th - Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Notes

2005-04-24T23:53:00.000+02:00

Top 1st
This is the first time I see Nomo pitch. While his delivery looks very elaborate, it’s nice to watch none the less. Half the motion is completely useless, I guess. Unfortunately, the first batter he faces reaches base, so the has to shorten his delivery.
Ramirez just hit a sac fly and lets his teammates congratulate him. Personally, I think he came to the plate thinking sac fly, his swing looked halfhearted to me. Though his OPS (1.016) says different, I think he isn’t really motivated right now. But then, I’ve seen him only a few times so far. 2-0 Boston, good start.

Top 2nd
Nomo again allows the first hitter to reach base, but only one run to score. Again, Manny Ramirez looks lazy at bat as he fouls out to right outfield.

Top 3rd
Only the second hitter reaches base and noone scores. Nomo is obviously settling in.

Bot 3rd
Arroyo looked good so far and each time he gave up a hit he followed with a double play ball. Still 3-0

Bot 4th
Arroyo gives up his first ER on two singles and a groundout. But I still think he looks good.

Top 5th
No baserunner his inning and against Ramirez, Ortiz and Millar, that is. What will come next? Will he strike out the side?

Bot 5th
Is Arroyo tiring? After a solo home run by Nick Green, Crawford take Manny to the wall. Good effort by Manny, looks like he wants to win a gold glove instead of a silver slugger award this year.

Top 6th
Nomo strikes out Varitek and I already see my prediction come true. But then Renteria singles and comes home on a double by Vasquez. Then Nomo strikes out Bellhorn and Damon grounds out.

Bot 6th
Arroyo hits Huff (whom he just can’t get out) with two out and a single puts runners on the corners, but Arroyo gets out of the jam with a grounder to third.

Top 7th
Lance Carter is the new pitcher for Tampa Bay. He throws the first pitch behind Trot Nixon and both teams get a warning. Consequently Manny hits a solo homerun on the first pitch he sees. You could see he hit that one with much more authority than the sac fly in the first inning. Then, a pitch to Ortiz’ head barely misses and sends Big Pappy to the ground (luckily). Ortiz turns to Carter and the benches clear. Nixon and Brazelton try to box it out, but are restrained. Finally, Carter, Nixon, Brazelton and manager Pinella are ejected and the game continues. With two outs.

Bot 7th
Wow, what a game. The second pitch by Arroyo hits Singleton (with two men warming up in the bullpen) and the benches clear again but no punches are throws this time. Arroyo and Francona are the next to be ejected. Maybe not too smart a move, since Mantei comes in and walks Hall. But then he gets the K and is replaced by Myers, who also gets one. Next comes Timlin, who faces pinch hitter Eduardo Perez, who hit a walk-off homer of Embree yesterday. This time it’s just a single, but that drives in Singleton and it’s a two-run game. Lugo takes Damon to the warning track, but the innings is finally over.

Top 8th
With the help of three walks, an RBI-single and a grand slam homerun by Payton (who got in the game for Nixon, it’s now 10-3 in just a second. And David Ortiz hits another dinger. Looks like the hit batter come back to haunt the Devil Rays. A walk, single and another walk load the bases again, but Vasquez misses a second grand slam by a few feet.

Bot 8th
Halama comes into the game and gives up a couple of hits, but no runs

Bot 9th
Only one more runner reaches base and the Red Sox win a wild one 11-3 and avoid the sweep.

Win Probability Added and the bunt

2005-04-21T22:48:00.000+02:00

Studes has started a regular column on The Hardball Times where he tracks the flow of Win Probability for each team. In these articles, the bunt usually comes off badly. Even in late innings in a tie game, sac bunting a man from 1st to 2nd with no outs decreases the team’s win probability (though it increases the chances that the team scores one run – how this is possible is beyond me [actually, it isn’t, it’s just a little paradox when you first hear it]).
Still, I think a bunt is useful (in late innings at least). Maybe just bunting someone over from 1st to 2nd with no outs is not. You still need a hit to score (and maybe even a single isn’t enough), but you have only two chances left instead of three.
Instinctively, I’d say that bunting a man from second to third with no outs instead is much more useful. Now, the runner can score on every hit, sac fly, squeeze bunt, a wild pitch…
Happy with my new “theory”, I tried it out with the “win expectancy finder” on walkoffbalk.com. Today, the Chicago White Sox played the Tigers in Detroit. With Jeremy Bonderman pitching, the Sox trailed 2-3 and had runners on 1st and 2nd (Pierzynski and Crede). Then Uribe bunted them over. The move paid of when Podsednik drove them both in. So, was the bunt a good decision or were the Sox just lucky?
Win probability before the bunt: 0.451
Win probability after the bunt: 0.426
Hm, so looks like it was just luck after all, or what?
I wasn’t satisfied with the result, obviously, so I wanted to check something else. When Crede scored from 2nd on the single, the Tigers nearly had a play at the plate. Considering that Crede is a faster runner than Pierzynski, one might assume that Pierzynski wouldn’t have been able to score had he still been on 2nd base, so had Uribe hadn’t bunt and singles instead of Podsednik, that might have just loaded the bases.
Win probability after the bunt and the 2-RBI single: 0.671
Win probability without the bunt and a single by Uribe loading the bases: 0.529
So, if you look at the bunt from this angle, it might actually have been a good choice.
On the other hand, had Pierzynski been able to score, we look at this:
Win probability without the bunt and a single by Uribe scoring one and putting runners at the corners: 0.706

All in all, I think the question “to bunt or not to bunt” won’t be settled here (obviously) and probably won’t be settled by looking at win probabily alone. The runners’ speed and the hitter in the on deck circle also have a large impact on the outcome, I’d guess. Also, as much as I like the idea of win probability, the data sample just is a little bit too small. For example, there have only been 51 games with the score tied in the 6th, visiting team batting and runners on the corners and no outs.

Conclusion: I would still bunt with no outs to get a runner to 3rd, though I wouldn’t do it with a runner on 1st. Then, I would pinchrun Dave Roberts and let him steal 2nd.

April 9th & 10th

2005-04-10T21:47:00.000+02:00

Some thoughts over the weekend:

Randy "30 Wins" Johnson's line of 6 innings, 8 hits, 5 runs (4 earned) makes him look very human right now. Wrapup
Pedro "Six Innings" Martinez throws a complete game, two hit, one run shutout for the first Mets' win. What's even more impressive: He's currently on the pace for 336 strikeouts and has a 7 K/BB ratio. Huh!
John Smoltz is 0-2, but his 7 1/3 innings, two runs, 15 (!) strikeouts make his move to the rotation look less rash. And he lowered his ERA for 24.40 points.
Am I the only one who thinks Manny Ramirez looks like he still has a hangover from the World Series party? It seems to me that he wants to be in bed instead of at the plate right now. Also, have to checked out his official picture on MLB.com? It supports my hangover theory. It also explains why he tried to steal 3rd base today: He wanted to get back to the dugout as quick as possible, but unfortunately for him, he was save.
The Phillies' offense sure looks good so far, thanks to Pat Burrel, who's hitting 1.443 OPS with 3 HR in the first six games. If their pitching gets it together, they might finally challenge the Braves and the Marlins for the division.

More later...

April 9th - KC Royals @ LA Angels - Notes

2005-04-10T12:05:00.000+02:00

Bot 1 Why did Bengie Molina hit that pitch of his shoes with the bases loaded? Lima wasn't able two throw three strikes to anybody

Top 2 - Kevin Gregg pitches better than I expected him to. No, he's not great, but not awful either and a little unlucky, striking out DeJesus on a wild pitch (which I thought was a passed ball). And why does the reporter call him "Young Kevin Gregg" all the time?

Bot 2 - I thought that Maicer Izturis was an even worse hitter than his brother and now he starts with a triple, not bad. And Figgins brings him home with a sac fly.

Top 3 - Kevin Gregg gets lucky here with a linedrive double play to end the inning with men on 1st and 2nd. He has already thrown a ton of pitches, so I'll guess we might see Shields in the 5th or 6th already.

Bot 4 - After two 1-2-3 innings, the Angels break it open with help of the KC second baseman who didn't step on the back on a force attempt.

Top 5 - Gregg finally gives up a dinger to Stairs and it's 7-3 Angels. Gregg is done for the day, but he did a solid job and would get the win if the Royals don't rally.

Bot 8 - Yan and Scisco both did a good job keeping the offenses quiet (Yan had a couple of long fly balls, though ). Finally, something happens when Bengie Molina hits his second homerun of the day. It's good to have him back healthy!

Top 9 - The Royals don't threaten again and the Angels are 3-2 for the season.

Farest-Fetched Predictions

2005-04-08T13:35:00.000+02:00

The season is already on the way and we didn't have to wait long for the first drama. Alex "Bunthit" Sanchez was accused of taking steroids, John Schmoltz' outing as a starting pitcher was shorter than his closer appearances and Mariano Rivera has blowen two saves in a rown against the Red Sox. But I still want to take a look back at all the predictions made in the offseason and see who made the farest-fetched, most outrageous or ridiculous predictions. Come october, one of these guys might look smarter than all the others.

AL Cy Young - Zach Greinke - Phil Rogers (ESPN)
Greinke pitches in Kansas City, where he would have a hard timing winning 15 games even if he pitched like Randy Johnson. And you can pitch as good as it goes, if you don't have the wins, you don't get the votes. Also, there's little concern about Greinke's line drive percentage. I expect Greinke to do well though, but he won't win the AL Cy Young, even if Johnson, Santana, Schilling and Harden all get hurt.

Randy Johnsons wins: 30
I don't remember where I read this, but some guys think Johnson will make a serious run a 30 wins. Johnson is a very, very good pitcher and the Yankees will give him some wins even if he doesn't pitches like it. But 30 wins, come on. He is a year older now, has knee problems and move from the NL to the AL and not the other way around. So he will have to face a DH instead of a pitcher now and that will add some points to his ERA. Last year, it was 2.60, so expect it to be in the 2.80 - 3.20 range and you don't win 30 games with a 3+ ERA. Also remember that a lot of his starts will come against Boston and Baltimore, premier hitting clubs.
Even if he stays healthy and make 35 starts, there will be days when the opposing pitcher shuts out the Yankees' lineup and Johnson won't get a decision. 25 wins is certainly possible, though even that is unlikely.

AL East Division Champs - Baltimore Orioles - 3893 (15%) Voters on Sportsnation
Are you kidding me? I can accept 1.2% voting for the Blue jays and 0.7% for the Devil Rays, these are fanatic fans, but 15% for the O's? Come on, even if Sammy Sosa hits 70 homers they don't have a chance, there's an off chance they might catch the Yankees or the Red Sox, if one team underachieves, but both?. Who's pitching for them again?

Ichiro batting .400 and breaking the 56-game-hitting-streak-record
Well, this one isn't THAT far-fetched, but I'm running out of material here and it's still pretty unlikely. Last year, some people predicted that Barry Bonds would hit .400, what he managed
was .362. That's still pretty good, obviously, but not close. Ichiro had 262 hits last year and an average of .372, but that's still 20 hits shy of .400. Do you think he will break his own all time hits per season record by 20? Hardly. He obviously has to take more walks, but that's not his kind of game. He puts the ball into play and hopes to beat it out when it doesn't leave the infield. I think taking more pitches will hurt his performance because he's not used to that and won't feel comfortable. Fact is, in 2004, Ichiro had a career year and it's very unlikey he'll even a better year in 2005. I agree when someone hits .400 soon then it's Bond or Ichrio (or Pujols?), but I don't really think it will happen.
And the 56-game-hitting-streak-record is save, that's for sure. A hitting streak is not something a batter can control himself. If you get hot, the pitcher may work around you, even when you're speedy like Ichiro. There will be times when Ichiro starts a game 0-2 and then be intentionally walked in latter innings.

AL Cy Young - Kelvim Escobar - Bjoern
Well this is just rid..., ah, I mean, you all will see it and bow to genius!!! Harhar!

Picking on Gammons (Part 2)

2005-04-05T21:09:00.000+02:00

The experts have made their picks. Now it's the amateur's turn. To set my goals high, I line up against the best of them, against baseball reporter legend Peter Gammons. Opposite to yesterday, I'll only take one pick for each division.
Ok, so I was wrong about Martinez getting his first W. Still, 12k on opening day is still pretty impressive and a good sign if you remember Pedro on in April 2004. But no further delay, let's go on with my predictions before the season is half over.

AL East
Peter Gammons: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Devil Rays
Although I'm currently watching the Red Sox losing their second game in a row to the Yankees, I still expect them to win their division. The reason is that during the season, Johnson, Pavano and Brown will all go down with injuries and the Red Sox will find out that Wells really is over 40 years but luckily, at that time, Wade Miller steps in. The Orioles will finish third, cause they can hit (If they miraculously start pitching, they do have a chance for the postseason). The Blue Jays have Roy Halladay and, ah, some guys. The Devil Rays have, oh, Alex Sanchez. They do have Kazmir, but let's talk about him next year.
My pick: Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays, Devil Rays

AL Central
Peter Gammons: Twins, Indians, Tigers, White Sox, Royals
Let's start from the bottom. The Royals, coming of a season where most "experts" picked them to win their division are now the unanimous choice to finish last. After them, it's wide open. The White Sox have signed some pitching, but lost much power with Ordonez and Lee (why? why did they made this trade?) and that will hurt them, because they are used to be an all long ball team. The Tigers signed Ordonez and though everybody talked about what a bad contract that was, if he stays healthy, he will certainly help theTigers, but after Bonderman, they pitching isn't strong enough, though the pen looks decent. The Indians might really challenge the Twins for the division title if their pitching holds up, but the Twins pitching was great last year and should stay good. Their hitting was only mediocre, but is likely to improve. So, I come to the same conclusion as Mr. Gammons (Yes, I'm lame).
My picks: Twins, Indians, Tigers, White Sox, Royals

AL East
Peter Gammons: Angels, A's, Rangers, Mariners
I also expect the Angels to win the division, I explained that earlier in this blog. I'm a big fan of Billy Beane and I think his Moneyball philosophy certainly works. But I don't expect the A's to contend this year. Rich Harden will be good, Barry Zito will be decent or good, but to count on three unproven pitchers all to perform well is just unlikely. The A's offense gets on base, but is unspectacular and won't be able to pick up mediocre pitching for a longer period. I don't want to make the same predictions as Gammons again, so I say the Rangers will finish last in the east. Their infield is great, no doubt about that, but their pitching will evaporate this year. Kenny Rogers won't start 10-0 this year and the Rangers will have troubles finding a servicable rotation, which, combined with a revival of Seattle's senior club, will lead to these standings at the end of the season:
Angels, A's, Mariners, Rangers

NL East
Peter Gammons: Braves, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Nationals
How can someone not take the Braves? I don't like their outfield corners and nobody knows what Smoltz can do in the rotation, but I still have a feeling they win the east. But the Marlins look better on paper to me and if they stay healthy, this will be the year they finally win their division (unfortunately, the Braves won't take the wild card and win the World Series now, though this certainly would be THE story). The Mets don't have the pen to win a division and I have no reason to believe the Phillies will put it together this year. The Nationals deserve being last just for their stupid name.
My picks: Marlins, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Nationals

NL Central
Peter Gammons: Cardinals, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Reds, Pirates
The Cardinals infield won't be as good as last year (I'm a big Eckstein fan, did I mention that?), though I don't understand why the people pick on Grudzielanek while at the same time everyone is convinced that Womack won't be good in New York? They have a rookie catcher, but the Mrs. Molinas sons all make pretty decent catchers and young Yadier is supposed to be the best of the three brothers. The Cardinals also have Larry Walker for a whole seaons and Mulder replaces WoodyWilliams. I don't see any other team in the division improved, so who should challenge them? The Cubs lost a lot of offense and have a hard time staying healthy, second place and the wildcard should be considered a big success. The Astros just don't have it this year, Petitte is back, but Miller's gone, so are Kent and Beltran. Clemens won't have a Cy Young season again. So I don't expect them to contend this year. The Brewers will be better and have some talent in the minors that might help them next year, but I don't think they'll catch the Astros this year already. The Reds might finally have a healthy centerfielder and they can hit enough to pick up their mediocre pitching. The Pirates, well, maybe next year.
My picks: Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Astros, Brewers, Pirates

AL West:
Giants, Padres, Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies
I think this will be the year Barry Bonds finally declines. The steroids talk, the pressure of the media, injuries, the absence of his father and his age will finally take their tolls and make him look human. With a human BB, the rest of the lineup has to stay healthy and productive, which is hard to do when your starting lineup age rivals the Yankees & Red Sox payroll combined. I think the Dodgers will win the division again. Lowe and Penny will pitch like aces and Drew will hit and stay healthy, making Podesta look like a genius. The Padres will stay in the race until early September and the D-Backs will surprise everyone, challenging the Tigers record for games improved. The Rockies, well, they'll hit a lot of dingers at home and enjoy their field trips.
My picks: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, D-Backs, Rockies

Picking on Gammons (Part 1)

2005-04-04T21:35:00.000+02:00

The experts have made their picks. Now it's the amateur's turn. To set my goals high, I line up against the best of them, against baseball reporter legend Peter Gammons. Also, I'm make a pick for my head and for my heart each to increase my chances. :)

AL MVP - Peter Gammons: David Ortiz
I like David Ortiz, I like him very much. He's a great hitter and as far as I know, a great guy. But I don't think he'll be the next MVP. Ortiz is a DH and as long as he doesn't hit 50+ HR or .350, the writers won't give him the award. Also, he plays with Manny Ramirez, so he has to share some attention.
My pick is Vladimir Guerrero (head & heart). This is something I don't understand. Last year, after he moved to the AL, everybody picked Guerrero as MVP. This year, after he won it, only Rob Neyer and Eric Karabell pick him. Strange. As I wrote earlier, 2004 was just an average year for him. Now, with more protection around him, he should be even better.

NL MVP - Peter Gammons: Nomar Garciaparra
I'm not so sure about that one, I'm an AL guy. Garciaparra might win it, if the Cubs win their division. Bonds is obvious candidate, but I think his run will end. My heart's pick is Troy Glaus. If he'll stay healthy, clubs 40+ HR and the Diamondbacks surprise, he has a chance (Gammons seems to agree there). My head says Albert Pujols. He obviously is good enough and after he was stuck behind Bond for two years, he'll make it this year.

AL Cy Young - Peter Gammons: Randy Johnson
If Randy Johnson stays healthy, he'll win the Cy Young. Point. I just don't think he will stay healthy with his 41-year-old-knee. Rich Harden is good, but I don't think he'll get enough wins. Same for Jeremy Bonderman. Gammons also gives Bartolo Colon a chance, which makes me look less stupid. But I take another Angel, Kelvim Escobar (heart). He was good last year and he will be better this year. Also, the Halos will score enough runs for him to win 22 games (I'm kidding here). Logically thinking, it must be Randy Johnson or Johan Santana. Since I believe Johnson will get hurt, it's Santana.

NL Cy Young - Peter Gammons: Pedro Martinez
I agree. I'm currently watching Pedro striking out the Reds. When I saw the score, I thought I should change my pick, but Pedro "only" gave up a 3-run-homer. Right now, Floyd hit a 2-run-dinger, so Pedro will get his first W today. Everybody talked so much about how much changing leagues and Shea stadium will help Pedro Martinez and I think all this is true. Only concern: the Mets' pen.

Rookie Of The Year
I skip this one, sorry. I really don't know enough about prospects to make a carefully considered pick, I'd just repeat someone else's choice. I do hope McPherson will win the AL award, cause this means the Angels probably had a good year.

World Series - Peter Gammons: Twins over Cubs
Everybody loves the Twins this year. Jayson Stark, Buster Olney and Jerry Crasnick also picked them. If it would just be to thank Aaron Gleeman for his great blog, I didn't begrudge the Twins the title (correct grammar?) But even though I'm expect them to win their division (though I'm not that sure), I don't think they'll get to the series. In the end, it all comes down to Randy Johnson. If he's healthy, the Yankees start a series with Johnson, Mussina and Pavano. But take away the Big Unit, and Mussina, Pavano and Brown/Wright doesn't sound half as intimidating. To stick with my presumption that Johnson will be hurt, my head picks the Red Sox to win it all. If the Wade Miller deals plays out, they have a strong rotation and they hit better than any other club. As you could expect, I hope the Halos will win it in 2005. As for the NL finalist, I'm not sure which team to pick. I like the Marlins, but I'm not sure if they can win their division. I don't think the Cardinals have the pitching and the Cubs don't have the offense or the medical stuff. Giants have a chance if Bonds is dominant as last year. Oh man, the NL really is open for grap. My heart takes the Marlins, they have the pitching and they have a nive combination of power and speed in their lineup, they just need to stay healthy. My head says the Cardinals should be good enough to get back to the Series, their middle of the order is scary with Walker, Pujols, Edmons and Rolen smashing and their pitching is solid, their defense also good.

Alex Sanchez supposedly took steroids

2005-04-04T17:19:00.000+02:00

So there he is. The first player found guilty of steroid use in the 2005 season. It didn't take that long, did it? And it doesn't really surprise anyone, I guess, now that MLB introduced baseball's new strict drug policy (when MLB officials talk about it, it always reminds me of Roland Koch, the Hessian minister-president, who had to deal with a donation-affair within his CDU-party. He always said he would employ the "most brutal investigations possible", rofl!)
What might surprise some is that Alex Sanchez from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays is this player. Sanchez isn't the kind of player you usually suspect of taking steroid when you see him. He's listed as 5-10 at 180lb and over the last three years he hit .297, .330, .367. Not exactely a power thread. ESPN's scouting report tells us that Sanchez "has much better than average speed and tries to take advantage of it by playing small ball. He is an excellent bunter and always is a threat to lay one down." So why did that guy took steroids for? He claims that he had never taken steroids and that the reason for his positive test must be something he "bought over the counter".
If Alex Sanchez really took steroids, what does that mean for baseball? Does it mean that the new policy will be a success? Hardly. As long as the chances of being caught are slim and the penalties are RIDICULOUS! Just to put this in perspective: Jan Ullrich (the German cyclist who always looses against Lance Armstrong) was hurt and went to a disco with friends. One of them gave him a extasy pill and Ullrich was doping tested soon after. Though extasy only hurts your rehab, he was suspended for one year.
If Alex Sanchez really took steroids, this means that you can't trust anyone at all. Not only the guys who hit 40+ homers are suspicious, everyone is. David Eckstein? Not so sure anymore. Juan Pierre? He did hit a career high 3 HR last year. I always thought a lot of players took steroids, but I thought most of them were corner out- or infielders. Not so sure anymore. If anything, this case should tell MLB and the player's union that they have to employ a new drug policy that is not a joke, one that fulfils the Olympic norms, if they want to get back the trust of the fans.

Boston Red Sox - New York Yankees - Position by position comparison

2005-04-03T18:21:00.000+02:00

In a recent article of ESPN's Jayson Stark, some GM, managers and coaches compared Boston's lineup and New York's lineup position by position (they only asked six people at all). Only one ranked the Yankees as good as the Sox. So I wanted to check this out by myself, though (since I don't know any GM, managers, coaches, scout, columnists, players or even baseball fans) I used projections from the Baseball Think Factory for the 2005 season and I only looked at the offense. I might include pitching and defense later, if I have the time (which means: probably not). I also included the three bench players I think will get the most playing time (though I counted them as a half position only). Here we go:

Catcher Jason Varitek - Jorge Posada
         AVG   OBP   SLG
Varitek .274  .361  .452
Posada  .265  .385  .468
-----------------------------
       +.009 -.024 -.016
Posada is a little (really just a little) better than Varitek and though you might call even, I give this position to the Yankess out of generosity.
Boston - New York 0-1

First Base Kevin Millar - Tino Martinez
          AVG   OBP   SLG
Millar   .288  .369  .469
Martinez .242  .336  .408
-----------------------------
        +.046 +.033 +.061
Millar is known to get streaky, but as long as he's not going on a cold streak from April to September, he will outproduce the old Yankees hero easily.
Boston - New York 1-1

Second Base Mark Bellhorn - Tony Womack
          AVG   OBP   SLG
Bellhorn .267  .381  .450
Womack   .265  .311  .337
-----------------------------
        +.002 +.070 +.113
Everyone is sure Womack isn't going to repeat his career numbers from last year, me too. While Womack and Bellhorn will hit nearly the same amount of balls into play, Bellhorn will continue to take his walks (and Ks, but that's ok) and hit the occasional homer.
Boston - New York 2-1

Third Base Bill Mueller - Alex Rodriguez
           AVG   OBP   SLG
Mueller   .289  .369  .454
Rodriguez .285  .381  .539
-----------------------------
         +.004 +.012 -.085
Alex "the mercenary" Rodriguez easily outslugges ex-batting-title-holder Mueller. But it's closer than I thought it would be.
Boston - New York 2-2

Shortstop Edgar Renteria - Derek Jeter
          AVG   OBP   SLG
Renteria .324  .382  .467
Jeter    .298  .358  .454
-----------------------------
        +.026 +.024 +.013
Mr. Clutch (I just LOVE that article!) Derek Jeter now has a gold glove, too. Obviously, this means you get gold gloves for diving into the stands today. But what's even better: now that Renteria plays in Boston, Derek Jeter is only the third best shortstop in his division. I recently read an article about fantasy baseball where Jeter ranked much higher than Renteria. Why exactely is that?
Boston - New York 3-2

Left Field Manny Ramirez - Hideki Matsui
         AVG   OBP   SLG
Ramirez .311  .409  .589
Matsui  .293  .384  .481
-----------------------------
       +.018 +.025 +.108
This is too easy.
Boston - New York 4-2

Center Field Johnny Damon - Bernie Williams
          AVG   OBP   SLG
Damon    .290  .367  .443
Williams .266  .360  .427
-----------------------------
        +.024 +.007 +.016
Hittingwise, they are close. But lets take a look at another offensive category from last year.: Damon SB 19 - CS 8, Williams SB 1 - CS 5. I rest my case.
Boston - New York 5-2

Right Field Trot Nixon - Gary Sheffield
           AVG   OBP   SLG
Nixon     .282  .371  .505
Sheffield .287  .388  .525
-----------------------------
         +.005 -.017 -.020
I expected Sheffield's numbers to be significantly better than Nixon's, since this was one of two positions (3B was the other) where everyone on the original poll picked the Yankee player. Now that Nixon won't have to hit against many southpaws with Payton on the bench, I really think I could call it even. After all, Sheffield's OPS was .957 over the last three years, while Nixon's was .946 against righthanders. Since I gave the catcher position to New York, it's even here (I have to be a bit provocative if I want some people to read this blog).
Boston - New York 5.5 - 2.5

Designated Hitter David Ortiz - Jason Giambi
        AVG   OBP   SLG
Ortiz  .298  .380  .588
Giambi .252  .394  .493
-----------------------------
      +.046 -.014 +.095
Even if Giambi does miraculously come back to pre-steroid form, he will have a hard time catching Big Pappi.
Boston - New York 6.5 - 2.5

4th Outfieder Jay Payton - Ruben Sierra
        AVG   OBP   SLG
Payton .288  .345  .442
Sierra .233  .281  .375
-----------------------------
      +.055 +.014 +.095
If Giambi doesn't flop totally (I don't think he will), Sierra will get much less playing time than last year (And even though I list him as the 4th outfielder, he'll hardly ever play in the field). Payton instead will be a big factor, since he will start in RF against lefthanders. He could start for many teams, Sierra can't, that says everything.
Boston - New York 7.0 - 2.5

2nd Catcher Doug Mirabelli - John Flaherty
           AVG   OBP   SLG
Mirabelli .255  .330  .459
Flaherty  .233  .269  .366
-----------------------------
         +.022 +.061 +.093
I was really happy when I heard the Red Sox re-signed Mirabelli. He will catch all games with Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield on the mount and will also pinchhit sometimes. For a catcher, he really hits well, Flaherty doesn't.
Boston - New York 7.5 - 2.5

Pinch Hitter Kevin Youkilis - Bubba Crosby
          AVG   OBP   SLG
Youkilis .266  .367  .390
Crosby   .258  .309  .403
-----------------------------
        +.008 +.058 -.013
Youkilis will get on base more, Crosby is a bigger threat to hit one out of the park. After all, I think Youkilis is better and he's also two years younger and more likely to improve. Still I give something back to the Yankees for the Sheffield incident. I also round off, to make the numbers look nicer.
Boston - New York 8-3

Conclusion
If you had asked me before which team has the better offense, I probably would have been saying New York. Why? I remember last year, after the Rodriguez trade, everyone was talking about a heck of an offense, about 1000 runs being scored and records and stuff. The team hasn't changed much since then, has it? Obviously, the upgrade wasn't that great after all. Ok, nobody could have expected the Giambi saga, but still.
Every Boston hitter is a tough out, even the bench players. The lowest projected OBP is .330 for Mirabelli, the lowest for a starter is .367, for Damon, the leadoff hitter, this is. Is it just me or is it plain cruel if the leadoff hitter is the easiest out?
New York has some holes with Womack and Crosby, who will get more playing time to rest Williams. The Yankees will score a bunch of runs, no doubt about that, but if I were a pitcher, I'd fear the Red Sox lineup more.

I still have a few minutes, so I add up all the numbers and take a look at the team average. I still weight the bench players half as much as the starters.

Team Boston Red Sox - New York Yankees
         AVG   OBP   SLG
Red Sox .288  .372  .482
Yankees .268  .356  .448
-----------------------------
       +.020 +.016 +.034
Ok, this method of comparison is flawed in many ways, but it's interesting to see that the Red Sox are 2004's Phil Nevin (.289, .368, .492) while the Yankees are Matt Stairs (.267, .345, .451). Neat!

2005 Season Predictions - Los Angelos Angels of Anaheim

2005-04-02T14:31:00.000+02:00

Okay, now you know it, I'm an Angels fan. Why? Well, it's because when I got the PC game "MVP Baseball 2003" from EA-Sports (yes, that surreptitious advertising, but they deserve it. At least they still make baseball games for the PC), the Angels were the player's default team because they had just won the World Series. So David Eckstein was one of the first players I got to know. So the Angels are my favorite team today, with the Red Sox a close second (Last year sure was good!.
However, in the next days, I'm going to make some predictions which team is going to win its devision and why. I'm starting with the Halos and by taking a close look at each position and how it compares to last year:

1B - Darin Erstad (Backups: Casey Kotchman, Kendry Morales)
Last year, Darin Erstad played 125 games at 1B, hitting .295, .346, .400 and won a gold glove (This would be great if he was a shortstop or second baseman). If he can stay healthy (A big IF), there's no reason why he shouldn't repeat this line. Actually, I don't understand why the Angels didn't move him back to centerfield, where his defense is much more valuable than at first base, but maybe they'll do it when Steve Finley's contract runs out and Kotchman or Morales are ready to take over first (Kotchman only hit .224, .289, .276 in 38 games at 1B). Erstad will bat leadoff this year and I think this will actually help his numbers, giving him fewer opportunities to produce "productive outs".
Compared to last year: Even

2B - Chone Figgins, Adam Kennedy
Since Kennedy will begin the season on the DL, Chone Figgins will be the starting second baseman instead of the UEBER-utility-man. While their offensive values are nearly the same (Figgins: .296, .350, .419; Kennedy: .278, .351, .406), Kennedy's defense is much better. This may be because Figgins had to play at several position last year, which gives hope that playing 2B regulary will help him. Also, I expect Scioscia will hit Figgins second, where he and Erstad will put much pressure on the oppenents pitcher early with their speed (Ok, I was wrong with that, but I wrote this a while ago. Also, I still think it would make sense). All in all, with Kennedy expected back after some weeks, 2B won't be weaker than 2004.
Compared to last year: Even

3B - Dallas McPherson (Backup: Robb Quinlan)
It will be difficult for Dallas McPherson to follow in Troy Glaus' footsteps, but Glaus only played 58 games last year (and only 19 at 3B) and hit .251, .355, .575 and he was replaced for the most time by Figgins. Robb Quinlan played some 3B and hit an excellent .344, .401, .525, but only in 160 AB, so he certainly won't repeat that and he also got defensive issues. Tangotiger projects .266, .339, .447 for McPherson, but only 199 AB. I agree with the line, but I think he will play more if the Angels don't fall behind in the standings. Defensivly he seems to be adequate, so after all the changes at the position last year, he probably won't be a downgrade at least (Figgins had 11 errors in 92 games at 3B). McPherson ist the biggest unknown in the Angels lineup and his performance might determine whether the Angels have a good or a great offense. McPherson could be the AL rookie of the year, but he could bust, too.
Compared to last year: Worse

SS - Orlando Cabrera (Backup: Maicer Izturis)
I have always been a big fan of David Eckstein and his hustle and I really don't understand why the signing of Orlando Cabrera is such a big improvement. Eckstein hit .276, .339, .332 last year, while Cabrera hit .264, .306, .383. So Cabrera hit for more power, but he not exactly a power thread and his OBP is way too low. Only if he can repeat the .294, .320, .465 he hit in Boston or his 2003 season in Montreal (which I doubt), he's a real upgrade offensivly. However, his defense seems to be superior to Eckstein's by a larger margin, so I guess this is a real upgrade after all.
Compared to last year: Slightly Improved

CF - Steve Finley (Backup: Jeff DaVanon, Erstad?)
Last year's CF Garret Anderson played only 112 games and hit a modest .301, .343, .446., something Finley should be able to repeat (2004: .271, .333, .490). Some people say Finley isn't an adequate defender anymore (he still won a gold glove - weren't Edmonds and Jones playing in the NL last year???), but I think he will be better (quicker that is) and more experienced at this position than Anderson, so this change should be a defensive improvement after all.
Compared to last year: Slightly Improved

LF - Garrent Anderson (Backup: Jeff DaVanon)
Anderson returns to left field where he replaces the infamous Jose Guillen. Anderson needs to have a season a little above his average to compensate for the loss of Guillens production (.294, .352, .497), which is possible. But injuries slowed Anderson down last year and it remains to be seen whether he's 100% healthy. Defensivly, Anderson is the better fielder while Guillen had the better arm. If we count in the improved clubhouse chemistry after Guillens departure, let's call it even.
Compared to last year: Even

RF - Vladimir Guerrero (Backup: Juan Rivera)
The 2004 AL MVP returns to the right field of Angel Stadium. Guerrero hit .337, .391, .598 during his MVP campaign, but this was actually just an average season for him. So, there's no reason why he shouldn't repeat that.
Compared to last year: Even

DH - Jeff Davanon, Chone Figgins, Robb Quinlan, Juan Rivera, ...
Last year's most successful DH was Andres Galarraga (.300, .364, .600) in 10 AB. :)
Tim Salmon hit .253, 306, .323 in 186 AB, while Troy Glaus was responsible for 207 AB and a .251, .355, .575. Other DHs were Guerrero (49 AB .265, .333, .449), Guillen (39 AB .270, .386, .459), Davanon (66AB .273, .351, .485) and Quinlan (13 AB .154, .267, .154) (I probably forgot one or two though). If Jeff Davanon plays DH against right-handers only (he hit .279, .360, .436 against them and only .239, .349, .380 against southpaws over the last three years) and Quinlan platoons with him (Unbelievable .390, .456, .644 against lefties, although in only 59 AB) until Kennedy takes over 2B and Figgins joins the DH club, I think the DH will produce more AVG and OBP this year, though it might be difficult to repeat the slugging Glaus provided. Also, Rivera might break out after leaving the Expos (where he batted .307, .364, .465). I'm not really sure whether it's a good thing to have that many options or not.
Compared to last year: Even

The Bench
As you can see above, the Halos still have a strong bench with Figgins, Davanon, Quinlan and Rivera. Behind them, Kotchman (and Morales?) are eager to get more big league experience. Still, the Angels are probably better off if the bench plays less than in 2004, since this means that the starters stay healthy. But with this bench, health problems won't immediately hurt the team's playoff chances and this is certainly a big strength of this club.
Compared to last year: Even

The Starting Rotation
Bartolo Colon was hindered by ankle and lower back problems and his 5.01 ERA was a whole run higher than his career average, but he still managed to win 18 games. He seems to be in better shape this spring (ok, that might have been a spoof) and is much likely to improve his ERA and hopefully be the ace of the stuff. With a good season and an ERA of under 3.50, this team is good enough to give him the wins he needs to have an outside (=really, really small) chance for the Cy Young.
Kelvin Escobar was the most consistent Angels pitcher in 2004. He led the staff in ERA and Ks, but low runs support left him with a mediocre 11-12 record. Since this was his first year as a full time starter (he had 26 starts in '03) and that he's only 28, there's still room for improvement. I expect his 2005 campaign to be even better than last year's. If he get's the run support, he also is an outside (see above) Cy Young candidate.
John Lackey (14-13) and Jarrod Washburn (11-8, 25 G) had nearly indentical ERAs last season, with 4.67 and 4.64 respectivly. But while Lackey was a real hometown hero (his home ERA is 1.80 points lower than on the road over the last 3 years, 3.53), Washburn was the Halos' road warrior (his ERA was one run lower on the road, 3.55). So Scioscia needs to find a way to start Lackey at home and Washburn on the road as much as possible and he'll have a pretty good tandem at #3 & #4 :). Still, Lackey and Washburn can hardly be worse than last year, ERA-wise, so I'm confident they will both improve.
Paul Byrd replaces Aaron Sele and Ramon Ortiz and their 9W, 5.03 ERA and 4W, 5.47 ERAs respectively, as starters. So if Byrd stays healthy and makes 28 starts or more, the Angels will most likely have a better #5 starter.
All in all, I think the rotation will be better than last year and collect at least 72 wins (compared to 68 in 2004).
Compared to last year: Slightly Improved

The Bullpen:
The Angels lost Troy Percival to free agency, but while most Angels fans (including me) probably are sad to see him go, Percival is clearly declining. Though his 2.90 ERA was decent and a half run lower than his 2003 ERA (3.47), his OPS against rose from .573 to .610 to .682. (On the other hand, Percival had a 1.67 ERA and .196 BAA after the break). Still, with all the injuriy concerns surrounding Percival, letting him go probably was the right decision.
The new closer will be Francisco Rodriguez. So far he has shown he can handle high pressure situation and he already collected 12 saves last year while Percival was out. The only concern is he might be overworked after pitching in the Carribean Series (Does not seem so).
Brendan Donnelly will the new setup-man. He had a rough year in 2004 with a broken nose and other injuries limiting him to 40 games. His 3.00 ERA was a bit high, but 12 K/9 make me confided he hasn't lost anything.
Scot Shields gives the team a quality long-reliever who will get his share of wins and he can get a strike-out when needed.
Esteban Yan and Kevin Gregg will get a spot start once in a while and Gregg will then take his chances to also break the all-time record for wild pitches in a game.
This is a pretty good bullpen, with only one major weakness: no lefthander (Did Jake Woods make the team now?). But that's no change to last year, though, so:
Compared to last year: Slightly worse

Conclusion:
The Angels improved at shortstop and centerfield while losing production at 3B, their rotation should be a little stronger while the bullpen looks just little weaker than last year. So, I think they will win a few games more than they did in 2004. Last year, the Angels won their divison dispite injuries at 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, DH, their only left-handed pitcher AND with their ace having a 5+ ERA. This year, the A's lost two thirds of their Big Three, Texas is likely to decline after overachieving last year and Seattle signed Beltre and Sexson, but has a long way to go after a 99 Loss season. So, the Angels are the obvious pick to win the divison.
Unfortunately, the Angels will most likely play the Yankees or the Red Sox in the Divison Series and that's where the lack of a situational southpaw is really going hurt them. Moving Jarred Washburn to the pen is no solution, as we've seen last october.
For the Angels to advance further, Colon and Escobar have to dominate, Lackey has to find the postseason magic of 2002 again and Guerrero, Anderson, and someone else has to produce. Or (and that's more likely) Randy Johnson and Mussina/Pavano and Curt Schilling are all down with injuries come october.

Triple B launched!

2005-03-26T16:46:00.000+01:00

Opening day is only one week away and it seems to be a good time to start my baseball blog. You probably think "Oh, great, the world really needed more of those" and yes, you have all rights to be sceptical. But my blog will be totally different from all the others, featuring never-seen-before reporting technics and it will definitely revolutionize baseball blogging. Well, actually, it's nothing like that. It's just another blog like all the others (or worse maybe). The only thing "special" about it is that it's written by a German who is only really into baseball for one year and a half. So, you might enjoy coming here to laugh about my grammar and/or the contents of my columns.
However, I just want to write about baseball and help German baseball fans understand baseball terms. And hopefully, my writing will get better as time goes by. Enjoy your stay! - Bjoern

Triple B - Bjoern's Baseball Blog

Moving on

Favorite Spring Training Quote

Got Weaver!

Want Weaver?

That hurts!

Steve Finley, good hitter

Baseball Scrabble

What's WHIP?

Erstad back in Centerfield

It's good that these times are over

Wrong Strategy?

Do you remember?

Stepping to the plate, hitting *somewhere*, the Third Baseman ...

Happy New Year!

Damon signs with Yankees

Nothing ever happens, nothing happens at all

Three's A Charm

Horay, we have a LOOGY!

Finley on his way out of town?

To Be Manny Or Not To Be Manny?

No Konerko

The Paul-Konerko-Domino-Effect

Gold Gloves Ridiculous & the Range Factor

Relocation?

Redesign!

Relaunch!

Half Game Gain

Blue Jays - Bogy Team

Oops, they did it again

No luck this time!

Angels @ Mariner, Lackey vs. Meche

Angels @ Mariners & Twins @ A's - Liveblogging Doubleheader

The Road ahead

Angels @ A's series afterthoughts

Angels @ A's - Liveblogging - Take One

That sure feels good!

Don't Panik!

Some quick thoughts

Second Guessing

Revenge Of The Halos - Gone?

Release Finley?

State of the Angels - Part III.II

State of the Angels - Part III.I

State of the Angels - Part II

State of the Angels

New enemies and old friends

Angels in first place again

Angels pitching & fielding

DS-Dilemma-Time

D-Mac

Back Home

Los Angelos Angels Of Anaheim @ Los Angelos Dodgers

Ex-Boston Braves @ Boston Red Sox

Los Angelos Angels Of Anaheim @ Los Angelos Dodgers

Interleague Play Weekend

From zero to ?

Halos split doubleheader

What's wrong with...

Is Derrek Lee hot or what?

Yankees revamp their lineup

May 1st - Angels @ Twins

April 24th - Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Notes

Win Probability Added and the bunt

April 9th & 10th

April 9th - KC Royals @ LA Angels - Notes

Farest-Fetched Predictions

Picking on Gammons (Part 2)

Picking on Gammons (Part 1)

Alex Sanchez supposedly took steroids

Boston Red Sox - New York Yankees - Position by position comparison

2005 Season Predictions - Los Angelos Angels of Anaheim

Triple B launched!

Stepping to the plate, hitting somewhere, the Third Baseman ...